Splits And Surprising Results From Starters Guide This Play

Diamondbacks vs. Nationals, 6:45 ET

One of my favorite things about the baseball betting season is discovering the different splits between pitchers and teams. There are some splits that end up happening every year. Some of the splits don't last season to season, and some pitchers have no split differentials whatsoever. Finding out the different splits isn't always apparent, but now that we are almost halfway through the  season, we should have a clear indication of when you can trust, and when you cannot trust someone. Tonight we see a pitcher with a clear split difference and I'm going to put a play on the game between the Diamondbacks and Nationals. 

At the end of the first half of the 2023 season, the Diamondbacks were in first place within their division. This season they are sitting with a 35-37 record and are struggling at both home and on the road. If you want a reason to be a bit more optimistic, Arizona now has a bit of a golden opportunity because of the injury to Dodgers stud Mookie Betts. The bad news is that the Giants and Padres have that same opportunity presented to themselves. Both of those teams also have struggles that they will need to address and figure out, so there isn't a clear winner in this, but one of them needs to step up and make their move now. One opportunity for them would be getting tonight's starter, Slade Cecconi, on track and getting them meaningful innings. I mentioned splits being something you can rely on now, and those are evident with Cecconi. He isn't exactly a stud on the road, but he is significantly better on the road than at home. At home, he has allowed 19 earned runs in 13 innings (just three starts), but he has allowed 14 earned runs over 31 innings over five starts on the road. His day starts are also significantly better than his night outings, but all three home starts were night starts, so that's a bit more skewed than the reality is. He only has two quality starts for this season, and both came on the road. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in five of his six road appearances. He has never faced the Nationals, but it seems like opposing hitters are not struggling to figure him out.

The Nationals came into the season with significantly fewer expectations than the Diamondbacks had, especially considering that the latter team made the World Series last year. This is somewhat of a reconstruction year for the Nationals, but they do look fairly competitive in most games. For the year, they are one of many teams that are hovering around .500. The question that looms is if they feel like it is worth it to go for the playoffs this season, or if they have a longer-term plan, and will sell off pieces in hopes of building the franchise for later. I have to imagine that tonight's starter will get a bit of attention on the trade market if he does become available. The starter, Jake Irvin, is off to a nice beginning in this campaign and has been a very reliable option for his team. For the year, Irvin was 5-5 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, both of those numbers are top 20 in the Majors right now. Irvin matches Cecconi in the fact that he is worse at home than on the road, but it isn't quite as drastic, a 3.86 ERA at home vs 2.55 on the road. He has pitched very well lately though with five consecutive quality starts and nine in his last 12. He has faced the Diamondbacks hitters 34 times and allowed seven hits. Just one of those hits have gone for extra bases, and they are hitting .206 overall against him.

This is a bit harder of a game to judge than just openly fading Cecconi because he is pitching in Arizona. However, I think we can trust Irvin significantly more than we can trust Cecconi. Irvin has shown a long period of success and is limiting the damage even when opponents start to attack him. The best option for this game is to take the Nationals through five innings at -112. 

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