Split A Unit On These Plays In Royals Vs. Yankees

Royals vs. Yankees, 7:05 ET

We returned to the diamond yesterday and took down a win with the Red Sox easily beating the Orioles. They don't always come easy so when they do, it is a welcome surprise. We don't have much left in the regular season, but it has been a decent year overall - not my best, and specifically for Outkick, it might've been my worst, but by no means was it a disaster. Hopefully we can end strong as I'm trying to pick some better spots with all of the football, WNBA, and other sport options available before the MLB season concludes. I've picked a spot tonight with two pitchers I've been betting on for quite some time as the Royals take on the Yankees.

The Royals haven't locked up their postseason berth quite yet, but they do control their own destiny which is what you want when you head into September. With just about 17 games remaining, the Royals are just 3.5 games back of the Guardians for the division lead and sit in the #2 spot for the Wild Card race. The Tigers have been hot, as have the Mariners, but both of them are more likely to pass the Twins who have sunk back a bit in the race instead of these Royals. I have to give a hat tip to Kansas City. I fully expected this team to struggle offensively this season and likely be one of the worst teams in the sport. That hasn't been the case as they've been more than productive - and it has come from more than just Salvador Perez who is having his typical strong season. Bobby Witt Jr. looks like an MVP and one of the best hitters in the league. Their pitching staff doesn't have any big names on it, but they have gotten the job done all season. A likely Cy Young finalist takes the mound today, as Seth Lugo looks to close out a great season. Lugo is 15-8 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. His ERA is the 8th best in the league, and his WHIP is 11th. There is some reason for concern as his July and August were both rough months, but his first September start reflected more of what he did in April and May. In his last start against the Guardians, he went seven innings allowing six hits, one walk, and one run while striking out four hitters. Yankees hitters have been solid against him, collecting a .265 batting average against Lugo over their careers. He faced them earlier this year and allowed four earned runs in seven innings. 

DUNEDIN, FLORIDA - MARCH 08: Marcus Stroman #0 of the New York Yankees looks to receive the ball in the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during a 2024 Grapefruit League Spring Training game at TD Ballpark on March 08, 2024 in Dunedin, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

The Yankees are headed to the postseason, but the only question that remains is if it will be as a division winner or a Wild Card representative. Does it matter? Of course. There is home-field advantage, there are the risks of the short series where anything can happen, and of course the matchup will be different based on where you end your year. Personally, I am not sure there is a benefit to being a top-2 seed in a league. Baseball is very timing-focused and routine-based. The time off before the teams start their next series may actually do more harm than good. I've said this before, but it reminds me of hockey where the hottest team ends up making it to the Finals, not necessarily the best team of the season. We will see what happens here for the Yankees as the season winds down. Tonight they send out Marcus Stroman to the hill. Stroman has been a good addition to their club with a 10-7 record, 4.03 ERA, and a 1.42 WHIP. Sure, none of those numbers really wow you or are overly impressive, they are still good. The problem is they might be a bit fraudulent because he's only put together three quality starts in his last 15 outings. He has allowed four or more earned runs in five starts in the same span, including allowing five in 3.2 innings against the Rangers in his most recent start. His ERA also balloons at home, going from 3.09 on the road to 4.86 in Yankee Stadium. He did face the Royals earlier this year and tossed one of his better starts, going 5.2 innings, allowing no runs and just four hits.

Both of these teams are still jockeying for position and looking to formally secure their playoff spot. Yes, it is rather unlikely that either would miss the playoffs, but it is still technically possible. Stroman's numbers are okay, but when you look game-by-game, you start to see that he hasn't been the most reliable option for the Yankees. Lugo has been good this year, but you also need to consider that the past two months have seen him get progressively worse. I fully expect the game to go over the 8.5 runs that are posted here today. I'm going to put a half unit there and a half unit on the Royals to win, because I do feel like they are the better team in this one with Lugo than the Yankees with Stroman. 

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