Split Play For NLCS Game 2

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies, 8:07 ET

We are now at Game 2 in the National League Championship Series after a fun one in the series opener last night. Unfortunately for us, I was on the under and the game squeaked over. As we get closer to the end of the season all of the games provide interest and intrigue, but I think this one provides even more of it because the pitching match in tonight's game is a great one. We get Merrill Kelly taking on Aaron Nola as the Diamondbacks take on the Phillies in Game 2.

The Diamondbacks offense has been steady in the postseason, but their success in the first five games of the postseason was mostly due to their pitching staff. They held opponents to no more than three runs in any game. Last night they allowed five runs and now that the series is slightly longer, I have to assume that they will not be able to hold the Phillies down for seven games. Tonight, they have their second-best pitcher taking the ball with Kelly on the hill. Kelly ended the season with a 12-8 record, 3.29 ERA, and top-25 in strikeouts and WHIP. He has only made one postseason start, but it was a dandy. In that game against the Dodgers, he was able to go 6.1 innings and allowed just three hits and no runs to the powerful Dodgers offense. He faced the Phillies once this season and he allowed three earned runs over six innings. He was able to hold them to just three hits but also issued four walks. It wasn't a great game, but it was good. The Diamondbacks ended up losing the game in extra innings. Trea Turner has been very successful against Kelly, but the rest of the Phillies haven't been as successful.

PHILADELPHIA, PA - JUNE 30: Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies looks on against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park on June 30, 2021 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Marlins defeated the Phillies 11-6. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

The Phillies have one of the more explosive offenses in the league. When you look at their roster and their lineup, there aren't many holes. Sure, the offense can get stagnant at times, but you have a combination of power hitters, contact hitters, and some that do both. They did it with the longball last night, but you can't always count on that. Typically they are good runners and can steal bases as well as manage the basepaths. The team seems to just get locked in when the playoffs start. But, can the Diamondbacks pitching get them out in this game? It may not matter with how well Nola pitches. They've taken down Spencer Strider and Max Fried, arguably a more talented duo than Kelly and yesterday's starter Zac Gallen, so it could be a combination of Nola and Wheeler doing what they want. Nola didn't have a great regular season but has been solid in the postseason. In two starts, he has allowed just two earned runs over 12.2 innings. He faced the Diamondbacks once this season and allowed four earned runs over 6.2 innings in a Phillies win in June.

Tonight, I am expecting this to be a higher scoring game. The Diamondbacks finally got a bit of offense going and even with the loss last night they need to feel pretty confident. The Phillies are finding ways to score by putting the ball over the fence or by stringing together hits. I like Kelly quite a bit, and even like Nola, but think both can allow runs. I'm putting a half unit on the over and a half unit on the Diamondbacks at +140 to win the game.

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