Split Play As Guardians Take On Rangers

Guardians vs. Rangers, 8:05 ET

It wasn't a pretty weekend for me. I have high standards, but by anyone's measure, there really wasn't much for us to be excited about. If you played full units on yesterday's Royals vs. Angels game, you were profitable, but if you did just the half unit on each bet I suggested, you were not. So, in my book, Sunday was still a losing day. Saturday was worse. That's not something that you'll be able to avoid for an entire season, but as long as you have money management, we will be fine. I want to get back on track here as the Guardians take on the Rangers. 

Cleveland did not have a great weekend either. The Guardians went into Chicago and played the team that looked like a complete disaster for the first month of the season, the Chicago White Sox. They had a four-game set against their divisional foes, and then they pooped the bed. The Guardians lost three of four games before winning yesterday 8-0 before they headed out to face Texas tonight. The Guardians scored a total of 13 runs in those four games, and obviously, more than half of the runs came in the one victory. It wasn't that the pitching let them down (it very rarely is) because they only allowed 12 runs in the series. This will likely be the issue for the team for the entire season as the Guardians have been very successful this year, but the offense is prone to droughts. Tonight they have Tanner Bibee on the hill, and unlike some of his peers in the rotation, it is unlikely that he turns in a dominant performance. On the season he has completed six innings just once this year. In his past two outings, he has allowed ten earned runs over nine innings. The good news for Bibee and the Guardians is that the bats seem to produce when he starts. The Guardians have gone 7-1 in Bibee's starts, but they've won four in extra innings. They've also scored four or more runs in seven of the eight starts. The Rangers hitters are batting .256 against him. 

May 8, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee (28) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The Rangers are not quite the opposite of the Guardians, but they are hitting better than Cleveland. Texas has a .255 batting average for the season and has scored 205 runs. The batting average is roughly 20 points higher than the Guardians, but the runs are just 10 more than tonight's opponent. Last season, the Rangers offense was scoring a ton of runs, so maybe this is the team that is just returning to the norm after excelling last season. They only have 41 home runs on the year, and the missing power is obviously a significant loss for the squad. To make matters worse, the pitching staff hasn't been great. The team is pitching to a 4.07 ERA, which isn't terrible, but does leave room for improvement. Comparing them to the Guardians and their team 3.43 ERA, the Rangers actually have a lower opponent batting average which means they are probably giving up more hard hit balls or when teams do get to them, it is because they are stringing together hits. Tonight is Michael Lorenzen takes the hill for the Rangers. He only has five starts this season, and just one has come on his home mound. In the one home outing, he allowed five earned runs over six innings. In his most recent outing, he looked rough. The Athletics were able to score six earned runs off of him in six innings. The Guardians hitters are just six for 31 against Lorenzen over his career. 

The way the two teams are playing, it makes me think we probably should be taking the under in this game, however I don't have a strong feeling on the side. I do lean toward the Guardians over their team total of 3.5, but I'm not playing it at -170. Instead, I think Lorenzen could make a good start here and win the game for the Rangers. I'll back Texas through five innings in this one at -120. However, I do also like the over 4.5 runs through five innings as well. I'll take a unit and split it on both plays. 

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