Skubal Will Resume Dominance Against Guardians

Tigers vs. Guardians, 6:40 ET

I really hope you didn't follow me on Saturday and Sunday. I lost all three plays and I wouldn't say any of them were particularly close. Fine, maybe one was, but ultimately they were the wrong choice. In all reality this hasn't been a great two months of baseball for me. The first two months were great, but these past two have been very up and down - not even streaky, but a lot of 1-1 days. That's the worst because if I was losing everything at least you could fade me. Still, I'm confident I'll be able to get on a nice winning steak. Hopefully the streak starts here in the game between AL Central foes, the Tigers and Guardians.

The Tigers come into this game having made some nice progress after the All-Star Break in their first series, winning the first two games. They lost 5-4 yesterday against Toronto, but this helped to keep them alive at least in the Wild Card race. The team will have to make some interesting decisions in the next week or so on if they want to trade anyone, stand pat, or try to add to the club and make a push for the playoffs. The division is probably out of the question as they come into this game 11 games back of the Guardians. Best case scenario they win all three games and they are still behind the Royals and Twins, plus eight games back. The Wild Card has a few teams ahead of them still, so even that is unlikely but at least a better path than the division. Today they put Tarik Skubal, their Ace, and a potential Cy Young winner on the mound. Skubal has been great this year with a 10-3 record, the third-best ERA in baseball at 2.41, and the second-best WHIP at 0.88. He also has the fifth most strikeouts. He's made 19 starts for the season and has allowed three earned runs once, and four earned runs four times. The other 14 games saw him allow two or fewer earned runs, including six where he didn't allow another run. Somehow he hasn't faced the Guardians this season, but they haven't been great against him, hitting just .229 against Skubal.

Jul 19, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) celebrates after scoring during the eighth inning against the San Diego Padres at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The Guardians are 20 games over .500 entering today's contest. They are 18 games over .500 in Cleveland, so you can see where most of their dominance comes from. The team has been surprisingly good offensively. Jose Ramirez is the mainstay in the lineup and has been for years. He is hitting .271 with 23 homers and 79 RBIs. I still maintain that if he was in a bigger market everyone would know about him. Right now, it feels like only true baseball fans know how good this guy is. However, it isn't just him who is having a good season. Steven Kwan is hitting .346 for the season as well, and Josh Naylor has 22 homers and 71 RBIs, so not far behind Ramirez. Although, Ramirez and Naylor do account for about 50% of the Guardians total homer numbers. Obviously being 20 games over .500 it is more than just the offense that has been successful. The staff has a 3.66 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Unfortunately for them, Carlos Carrasco, today's starter, isn't one of the better ones. Carrasco is 3-7 with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Realistically, the WHIP isn't terrible. It is possible that his numbers could look slightly better if he got one more inning out of every start. He has just one start where he lasted seven innings, and just three more where he went six innings. He's been a little more reliable lately, allowing no more than three earned runs in his past five outings. He hasn't faced many Detroit hitters in his career. The ones he has faced are a combined 5-for-18 against him. 

This line is interesting to me because the Tigers clearly have a far superior pitcher on the mound. If you look at it, the Tigers are favored at -130 which I guess makes sense because if their pitcher and how good the Guardians have been. The Tigers are -175 through five innings though. This would likely indicate that the books think the Tigers should win through five but could potentially blow it. I don't think that is going to happen, and I think Skubal probably gives them seven solid innings tonight and the Tigers will win this one. 

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