Simple Choice As Orioles Take On Marlins

Orioles vs. Marlins, 6:40 ET

I struggled to write an opening for this post. I usually try to put either an update to what happened yesterday or talk about something I've been thinking about. Sometimes I share some perspective on the significance of a particular game or series. This game between the Orioles and Marlins doesn't have special significance, but still stood out to me. Sometimes that is okay to just look at a game and know there is a good bet to be made, and you don't need to overcomplicate things. I guess that's the lesson with this one - it might not be any significant game with an important secondary story, it is just a good bet to make. 

A couple of years ago, the Orioles were expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball. Everything suddenly clicked for them and they became a playoff team. Since that point, they have been one of the best teams in baseball. They are well-balanced with their offense and pitching staff. In past seasons, they were led by a decent enough starting staff but lockdown bullpen. Essentially, if you were losing after five innings, you were going to lose the game. This season they invested in a true Ace for a starter in Corbin Burnes, but their bullpen isn't quite as great. That is one area they will likely address via the trade market. The club is struggling lately - since before the All-Star break. They are also just 2-2 since the return. Overall, the Orioles are hitting .253 as a team and averaging almost five runs per game. There really shouldn't be much reason for concern with the team, but I think they need to step up their performance soon because it isn't looking great right now. Today they are sending out Chayse McDermott who is making his Major League debut. In 2024, all at AAA baseball, he went 3-5 with a 3.96 ERA in 19 starts (20 appearances). He is a strong strikeout pitcher with 129 in just 91 innings this year, but he does have a 1.43 WHIP which is a bit concerning and he has walked 54 batters. If he has control issues today it could be a short outing for him.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MAY 07: Jazz Chisholm Jr. #2 of the Miami Marlins celebrates his solo home run, to take a 1-0 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers, during the first inning at Dodger Stadium on May 07, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

The Marlins were in the playoffs last season. They didn't really change much about their team. Sure, Sandy Alcantara hasn't pitched for them this season, but that's one guy, playing every five games. Outside of that, the team didn't make many significant moves during the offseason. They threw in the towel fairly early trading away Luis Arrarez, and they got rid of Tim Anderson, a guy that was a good hitter and just fell off the face of the Earth. Now the talk is they will trade away Jazz Chisholm. Things change fast in Miami, both for the bad and good if we are being honest. They are one team that seems to quickly adjust and rebuild then blow up the team. As for the team that is here now, they are hitting just .235 and scoring about 3.5 runs per game. Their On Base Percentage is just .287 and Slugging is just .357. So, essentially, the club doesn't have much going for them offensively. The pitching hasn't been very good either with a 4.51 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. One of the guys that has struggled in his eight outings is Edward Cabrera. In half of his starts he has allowed at least four earned runs. In the other four he has allowed at least one earned run. He has allowed 20 walks in 33 innings, but has also struck out 43 hitters in that span.

The Marlins have one just 36 games this season, and yes, they won yesterday against the Orioles. However, there is no question which team is the better team. The Orioles have the upper hand in this game, even with the recent struggles. It isn't ideal seeing a rookie making his debut, but the Marlins are also not a good offensive team, so this is a good spot for a rookie. I'm going to back the Orioles to win this game at -130. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024