Shriners Children's Open 2023 'Horses For The Course'
The PGA Tour's FedEx Fall Series heads to Las Vegas this week when TPC Summerlin hosts the Shriners Children's Open 2023. It's another lackluster field with the highest-ranked player being defending Shriners champ Tom Kim.
Golfers need to go low at TPC Summerlin if they contend this weekend. The average winning score of the past five Shriners champions is 23-under. TPC Summerlin is a Par 71 "birdie fest" with Bentgrass greens that measures 7,255 yards.
My 2023 Shriners Children's Open power rankings is built with FantasyNational.com's tools. My bets are based on course history, crossover course performance, key stats over the last 50, putting on Bentgrass greens, and total Strokes Gained (SG) at easy courses.
Tom Kim strategizes an approach shot on the 13th fairway Sunday in the 2022 Shriners Children's Open at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas. (Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)
Let's discuss my betting strategy. My goal is to win 20 units (u) for picking a golfer to win and make a placement bet to cover my outright plus at least 1u of profit. Also, avoid making placement bets at sportsbooks that apply "dead-heat" rules.
This is when a golfer you bet ties for top-5, 10, 20, etc. and your bet is divided by the number of tied golfers. Since that sportsbook isn't a sponsor of OutKick Bets, I won't name it. But, I'll give you a hint: It's a movie studio and casino in Las Vegas.
Shriners Children's Open 2023 'Horses for the Course'
Cameron Davis
This is a semi-gut-play with some stats to support it. The Aussie has the 4th-best odds to win the Shriners at PointsBet and ranks 6th according to my numbers. But, Davis has made the cut in all four starts at TPC Summerlin. Plus, he is playing better golf now then his previous four appearances.
Davis has finished T10 or better in four of his last five events. A T10 at the 3M Open in July, T7 at the Wyndham in August, T6 in the St. Jude in August and a T3 at the Fortinet in Sept. The Wyndham, 3M Open, and St. Jude are played at comp courses to TPC Summerlin and the Fortinet is another "birdie fest".
Cam Davis tees off on the second hole during the 3rd round of the 2022 Shriners Children's Open at TPC Summerlin. (Matthew Bolt/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Golfers can go "bombs away" off-the-tee (OTT) at TPC Summerlin and Davis is one of the longest hitters on Tour. Plus, Davis is 6th in my stats-based model over the last 50 rounds. He is 3rd in Par 4 Efficiency (EFF): 400-450 yards, 2nd in Birdie Average, and 6th in Par 5 scoring.
There are six Par 4s within 400-450 yards at TPC Summerlin. Golfers need to take advantage at the Par 5s if they want to contend in birdie fests. Davis is 1st in this field at comp courses, 5th in total SG at easy courses, and Bentgrass is by far his best putting surface.
1st thoroughbred: Cameron Davis
Adam Schenk
The Purdue University alum performs well at TPC Summerlin. Schenk is 5th in this field for total SG at TPC Summerlin with T20 or better in four of six Shriners. This includes a T12 last year, a T3 two years ago, a T18 in 2019 and a T20 in 2017.
Also, Schenk has picked up strokes tee-to-green and with his irons in four consecutive Shriners Children's Opens. He's gained strokes on the greens in all six starts at TPC Summerlin.
Adam Schenk tees off on the 3rd hole during the final round of the 2021 Shriners Children's Open. (Matthew Bolt/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
More importantly, Schenk is 3rd in my Shriners power rankings and he is 6th by the odds at PointsBet. The 31-year-old is 16th in this field for SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens over the last 24 rounds. He is 7th in my key stats over the last 50 rounds.
Finally, Schenk is 4th in SG: Approach (APP), 10th in Par 4 EFF: 400-450 yards, and 4th in Par 3 scoring. APP is the most predictive stat in golf. Three of the four toughest holes at TPC Summerlin are Par 3s.
2nd thoroughbred: Adam Schenk
Aaron Rai
Speaking of "APP-play", Rai is 5th in SG: APP over the last 50 rounds and 2nd in SG: Ball striking. At TPC Summerlin, there are a bunch of APP shots from 125-150 yards. The Englishman leads the field in Proximity: 125-150 yards out.
The firm and fast conditions at TPC Summerlin helps Rai make up for his lack of distance OTT. Rai is 6th in this field for Good Drives Gained over the last 50 rounds, which blends distance with accuracy. His fairway hit rate is roughly 70%.
Aaron Rai putts on the 17th green during the 1st round of the Shriners Children's Open at TPC Summerlin. (Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)
Furthermore, Rai leads the field in Par 4 EFF: 400-450 and ranks 9th in Par 5 scoring over the last 50 rounds. He finished T20 at last year's Shriners and tied for the 2nd-most SG: APP.
Lastly, Rai is in good form, finishing T2 at the BMW PGA Championship on the DP World Tour last month. This was after the PGA Tour's 2023-24 concluded. So the BMW had a stacked field with Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, and Matt Fitzpatrick.