'Sharps' Backing Bears Over Dolphins And You Should Too
The Chicago Bears (3-5) are a stinky 'dog and only people that make a living betting on sports will be backing them in Week 9 when the Miami Dolphins (5-3) visit on Sunday.
I'm inclined to agree. There's "reverse line movement" headed in Chicago's direction with the public all over Miami. The Bears' offense is trending north and this line is still off by at least a half-point.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
Chicago is mispriced in this spot
So lemme get this straight: Miami was a 3.5-point favorite at the Detroit Lions this week but opened as a 5-point favorite vs. Chicago for Week 9. The oddsmakers were basically saying the Lions are 1.5 points better than the Bears.
That's wrong. There's no way Detroit is better than Chicago.
The Lions are dead-last in the NFL in net expected points added per play (EPA/play) and have the 2nd-worst net success rate behind the Houston Texans (through Week 8).
Miami had no business getting that "front door cover" last week vs. Detroit. The Dolphins were down 27-17 at halftime before the Lions fell apart in the 2nd half.
Furthermore ...
This is a fishy spread
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in EPA/play blended with completion percentage over expectation and the Bears just traded away their two best defensive players in consecutive weeks.
Miami laying less than a TD vs. a sub-.500 Chicago team looks enticing. However, I'd argue it's a trap line. In fact, judging by the suspect line movement, the Bears appear to be the sharp side.
Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa and WR Tyreek Hill are in action during the 1st half of the game against the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
According to VSIN and Pregame.com, a vast majority of the action in the betting market is on the Dolphins but the line is headed toward the Bears.
Perhaps the sharps are seeing what I'm seeing ...
Bears QB Justin Fields is finding his groove
Over the last three weeks, the Bears have gained at least 237 rushing yards in each game, and Bears rookie head coach Matt Eberflus is finally clicking with his young QB.
Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields scrambles against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Fields has six total TDs in the last three weeks (six passing and two rushing), Chicago is converting 48% of its 3rd-down attempts, and the Bears have a +16 1st-down differential over that span.
Chicago's front office invested in the offense by trading for former Pittsburgh Steelers WR Chase Claypool earlier this week. Claypool is a big-bodied wideout that can be used in run blocking and is a deep threat for Fields.
BET: Bears +4 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +3.5
The Chicago Bears' odds vs. the Miami Dolphins from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, November 4th at 12:30 p.m. ET.