The Sentry 2025 Best Bets: Three Picks To Win, Two Finishing Position Bets
The PGA TOUR 2025 season tees off January 2-5 with its first of eight "signature events": The Sentry 2025 at The Plantation Course at the Kapalua Resort in Hawaii. This is the easiest course on TOUR over the last five years with ocean-wide fairways and huge Bermudagrass greens.
Kapalua's defense is its uneven lies, large green complexes, elevation changes, and occasional coastal winds. Despite being on the Hawaiian coast, the Plantation course has no water hazards. Otherwise, The Sentry is a "birdie-fest" with an average winning score of -24 since 2010, per Betsperts' Ron Klos.
Chris Kirk won The Sentry 2024 as a 125-to-1 longshot by shooting a -29. The Sentry used to be called the "Tournament of Champions" and the field consisted of winners from the previous season. But, the PGA expanded the field last season to TOUR winners and golfers in the top 50 of the FedExCup standings.
Chris Kirk hits his tee shot on the 14th hole during the final round of The Sentry 2024 at the Kapalua Resort - The Plantation Course. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Last season was an absolute disaster for me on the PGA TOUR. I lost 50+ units (u) and got Scottie Scheffler'd a few times. However, betting on the PGA TOUR is my favorite sports league to gamble on, and I need something to do in the NFL's offseason. Luckily, Scheffler is sidelined with an injury for The Sentry, so maybe I can get off to a good start this season.
Regardless, I'm sticking with my losing strategy from 2024: Betting a few golfers to win outright and ensuring them with placement or "finishing position" bets. My placement bets will always be with sportsbooks that payout ties. Note: Don't bet finishing positions that apply "Dead Heat" scoring.
The Sentry 2024 Betting Card
Picks To Win
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing, according to OddsChecker.com.
Sungjae Im (+1800)
If Sungjae didn't inexplicably card a 73 in Round 3 of The Sentry 2024, he would've won. His second-worst round last year was a 66, and he tied for fifth with a -24, five strokes behind Kirk. Sungjae crushed Kapalua last year, setting a PGA TOUR record for birdies (34) in a tournament.
In fact, Im has always played well at Kapalua. Sungjae has two T5s, a T18, and a T13 in his five career Sentry's. Over his last 36 rounds, Sungjae is fourth in this field for birdie-or-better rate (BoB), seventh in Approach (APP) shots from 200+ yards, and seventh in Strokes Gained (SG): Around-the-Green (ARG), according to BetTheNumber.com.
BET 1u on Sungjae Im (+1800) to profit 18u
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Sam Burns (+2800)
Besides The Sentry where he finished T33, Burns got off to a hot start last season. He finished T6 at The American Express, solo 10th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am ("signature event"), T3 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and T10 at the Genesis Invitational ("signature event"). The Phoenix Open and Genesis are on comp courses to Kapalua.
Furthermore, Burns finished 2024 strong: T5 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship (the first round of the FedExCup playoffs), T2 at the BMW Championship (the second round of the FedExCup playoffs), and T12 at the TOUR Championship. Burns tied for ninth at the 2024 U.S. Open, designed by the same guys who designed Kapalua.
Burns is one of the best putters in the world and Bermudagrass greens are his best putting surface. He led the TOUR in BoB conversion rate last year. His biggest weakness is driving the ball off the map, but that's not an issue on the Plantation course. Burns is a five-time winner on TOUR, and he can hit enough putts to win a "birdie-fest"
BET 0.7u on Sam Burns (+2800) to profit 19.6u
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Wyndham Clark (+4000)
The 2023 U.S. Open champion tied for 19th in his Sentry debut last year. However, his fantastic putting, ability to "go low", and dialed-in wedge play should work at the Plantation course. Clark ranked 19th on TOUR last season in SG: Putting, second in APP shots inside 100 yards, and second in birdie-or-better rate.
Wyndham Clark lines up a putt in The Sentry 2024 at Kapalua. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Kapalua is similar to the Los Angeles Country Club’s North Course, host of the 2023 U.S. Open. Clark’s three PGA TOUR wins are "elevated events": The 2023 Wells Fargo Championship, the 2023 U.S. Open, and Pebble Beach. So, Clark's +4000 odds have value considering they are worse odds than golfers who haven't won a "big-boy" tournament.
BET 0.5u on Wyndham Clark (+4000) to profit 20u
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Finishing Position Bets
Make placement bets at BetMGM or DraftKings. BetMGM never applies ‘dead heat’ rules. DraftKings has top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties" for The Sentry 2025.
Robert MacIntyre Top-10 (+240) at DraftKings: 0.5u to win 1.2u
The Scot is one of the few guys in this field that played competitive golf in the PGA's offseason. MacIntyre made five starts on the DP World Tour after the 2024 TOUR Championship, including a T5 at the Irish Open and a T7 at the DP World Tour Championship. He won twice on TOUR last year: The RBC Canadian Open and the Genesis Scottish Open.
MacIntyre excels in two areas that make him a threat to win any tournament, including a birdie-fest: Putting and long irons. Per DataGolf.com, he has gained strokes with his putter in nine of his last 12 starts. Last season, MacIntyre was second in proximity from the hole on approach shots from 200+ yards.
Adam Scott putts on the fourth hole during The 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions golf tournament at Kapalua Resort. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Adam Scott Top-20 (-105) at DraftKings: 1.05u to win 1u
The 14-time PGA TOUR winner is another golfer who kept playing after the 2024 TOUR Championship, where he tied for fourth. Scott ended 2024 on a heater: Second at the Scottish Open, T10 at The Open, T18 at the St. Jude, and T2 at the BMW. He played three DP World Tour events, highlighted by a T3 in the DP World Tour Championship.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.