'Sell-High' On Vikings, Josh Dobbs As Favorites Vs. Bears On MNF
The Chicago Bears (3-8) visit the Minnesota Vikings (6-5) for their 2nd meeting of the season on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 12. The Vikings are -3 (-110) over the Bears and the total is 44 as of 9:30 a.m. ET Monday morning.
Minnesota beat Chicago 19-13 on the road in Week 6 in a game Bears QB Justin Fields exited early with an injury. But, my takeaway from that game is Chicago out-playing Minnesota even with backup QB Tyson Bagent.
Bears QB Justin Fields is sacked by Minnesota Vikings pass rusher Danielle Hunter at Soldier Field in Chicago. (Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports)
The Bears held the ball for 10 minutes longer and out-gained the Vikings 4.2-4.0 in yards per play. They had six more 1st downs and converted a higher rate of 3rd downs (43-15%). The difference was Chicago's -2 turnover margin with Minnesota's strip-sack fumble recovery for a TD in the 3rd quarter.
However, for Bears-Vikings Part II, Chicago has Fields back under center and Minnesota is without Pro Bowl QB Kirk Cousins. Plus, Vikings WR, and 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Justin Jefferson will likely miss Monday's game.
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After winning in his 1st two games for Minnesota, QB Josh Dobbs started to look like a journeyman backup quarterback last week. The Vikings lost to the Denver Broncos 21-20 in Week 11 on Sunday Night Football. Dobbs committed two costly turnovers and Minnesota squandered a 2nd-half lead.
Minnesota Vikings QB Joshua Dobbs reacts after rushing for a TD vs. the Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. (Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)
Regardless, the Vikings covered their six consecutive game last week vs. the Broncos, making this a "sell-high" spot for them. Dobbs is an easy guy to root for but there's a reason Minnesota is his 5th team since last November.
Chicago Bears +3 (-110) over Minnesota Vikings in NFL Week 12
Chicago's defense has been sneaky good recently. Since Week 5, the Bears are 10th in defensive expected points added per play and 9th in success rate. They've been good at stopping the run all year; Chicago ranks 3rd in rushing defense success rate.
In their 1st meeting this season, the Bears held the Vikings to 46 rushing yards on 22 carries. Granted, Dobbs is a dual-threat QB and adds a dimension to Minnesota's ground game. Yet, Chicago signed two LBs Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards this offseason I trust to stop Dobbs from running all over the place.
Bears LB Tremaine Edmunds catches an interception against the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field in Chicago. (Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Bears were 5th in net early-down success rate minus turnovers entering Week 11 and the Vikings were 16th. "Early-down success rate" is a predictive stat because the whole playbook is available.
A big reason for Chicago's early-down success is its ability to stop the run. The Vikings will need Dobbs to make plays with his arm and convert 3rd-and-longs to win by margin. I'm essentially betting he cannot do this.
Also, after an atrocious start to the season, I like how Fields is playing pre- and post-injury. He completed 43-of-64 passes for 617 yards with 8 TDs to 1 INT against the Broncos and Washington Commanders in Weeks 4-5.
Fields only threw for 169 yards but completed 69.6% of his passes and ran for 104 yards on 18 carries in a 31-26 loss at the Detroit Lions last week. Finally, the Bears out-played the Lions in Week 11 and there is value on Chicago because it lost.