Sell-High On Lions And BET Ravens In Week 7
Do you know how I know the Detroit Lions (5-1) have officially become overrated? ESPN's Stephen A. Smith power ranks Detroit No. 1 in the NFL through six games. This makes the Lions an insta-fade when they visit the Baltimore Ravens (4-2) in Week 7.
Not to be mean, but talking heads like Smith represent "public bettors." First Take is one of the most popular shows on ESPN and Smith is one of its highest paid entertainers. He doesn't have time to watch half of the games he discusses. The dude is just riffing.
And, look, I'm not trying to hate on Stephen A. He's good at his job and I would kill to have his career. But, I take the sportsbooks' NFL power rankings a lot more serious than Smith's. Currently, the market is saying the Ravens are -3 at home vs. Detroit. They didn't even make Stephen A's top-five.
Lions at Ravens Week 7
Betting odds for the Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 7 as of Wednesday, October 7th.
This a sell-high spot for the Lions. They beat three NFC South teams — the worst division in the NFL — and a injury riddled Green Bay Packers on a short-week. Detroit's win at the Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 is impressive. Lucky but impressive. Yet the Chiefs were missing two of their three best players (Travis Kelce and Chris Jones).
Frankly, there's value on the Ravens -3, up to -4. They have the better QB, coach, and defense, by margin. Lamar Jackson has a better career winning percentage, QB Rating, completion rate over expectation, and EPA/play than Jared Goff.
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff rolls out of the pocket vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Florida. (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
Baltimore coach John Harbaugh has one losing season in 15 seasons in the NFL and one Super Bowl. Lions coach Dan Campbell is all the rage right now. However, Harbaugh has been winning divisions since Campbell was playing in the NFL.
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Furthermore, Goff likes to throw the ball in the middle of the field, which is where Baltimore's defense is the strongest. The Ravens have the best linebacker tandem in the NFL (Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen) and an elite safety group (Kyle Hamilton and Geno Stone).
Also, the market (made up predominantly by people who watch Stephen A. Smith-type shows) underrates Baltimore. It lost two stinkers vs. the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers and struggled to cover against the Tennessee Titans in Week 6.
But, the Ravens had poor turnover luck and FG luck vs. the Colts. Ravens WRs dropped several passes in a flukey loss to the Steelers. Baltimore's win over Tennessee last week would've looked better if the Ravens weren't 1-for-6 in the red zone.
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson scrambles against the Tennessee Titans at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. (Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
That said, all of those things have high variance and regress back to the mean. Justin Tucker is the GOAT. The Ravens have the defense to create turnovers. Baltimore's offense is 9th in red zone scoring rate and Detroit's defense is 21st in red zone scoring rate allowed.
Lastly, even though the Lions have a better win-loss record, the Ravens have a better net EPA/play, net yards per play, and success rate differential. Baltimore has out-played all of its opponents thus far and is +19 in 1st downs.
My prediction: Ravens 27, Lions 16