San Francisco 49ers Will Beat The Brakes Off Seattle Seahawks Thursday In NFL Week 6
The two biggest saboteurs of NFL survivor pools last week, the Seattle Seahawks (3-2) and San Francisco 49ers (2-3), meet on Thursday Night Football in Week 6. They were both -7 home favorites in Week 5; Seattle lost to the New York Giants 29-20 and San Francisco got upset by the Arizona Cardinals 24-23 Sunday. The Niners are -3.5 road favorites with a 48.5/49 total.
These teams had misleading Week 5 losses in opposite ways. Because 49ers PK Jake Moody got hurt, they couldn’t kick the ball, severely altering their in-game decisions. But, San Francisco gained 6.1 yards per play and converted three more first downs than Arizona. Meanwhile, the Giants had 87 more yards and seven more first downs than the Seahawks.
The Niners have lost three of four games to the Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Rams, and Cardinals. The Seahawks have lost back-to-back games to the Detroit Lions and Giants. Yet, San Francisco is getting downgraded more by the market. The 49ers were -5 vs. Seattle on the summer look-ahead line. With that in mind, this is a buy-low spot for the Niners.
Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (-105) at FanDuel
First of all, 49ers QB Brock Purdy owns the Seahawks. Including the playoffs, Purdy is 4-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. Seattle. San Francisco is scoring 30.3 points per game and Purdy is averaging 287.0 passing yards with 9 total touchdowns (8 passing and 1 rushing), 2 interceptions, and a 115.1 QB Rating.
San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy throw off his backfoot against Seattle Seahawks at Levi's Stadium. (Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images)
Seattle's defense is overrated because of good performances in Weeks 1-3 against the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, and Miami Dolphins. Denver had a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix) making his first NFL start, New England had a place-holder backup starting (Jacoby Brissett), and Miami was missing Pro Bowl QB Tua Tagovailoa.
Furthermore, Lions QB Jared Goff has been awful this season, but he completed 18-of-18 passes for 292 yards and a 155.8 QB Rating vs. the Seahawks. Giants QB Daniel Jones torched Seattle's defense without stud rookie WR Malik Nabers. Jones completed 23-of-34 throws for 257 yards and had a 109.6 QB Rating. Purdy is playing much better than those guys.
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Also, the Seahawks are missing three defensive starters, including their highest-graded corner at Pro Football Focus, CB Riq Woolen. This leads me to my next pro-Niners factor: Seattle is playing its third game in 11 days. Due to injuries and fatigue, Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald is holding walk-throughs in gym shorts instead of practices with pads.
More importantly, Seattle's offensive line and play calling suck. Both are things San Francisco can exploit. The Seahawks are 30th in pass- and run-blocking win rates, per ESPN, and they have the highest pass rate in the NFL. Seattle attempted 11 more passes than runs in a 24-3 win vs. Miami, which makes no sense because the Seahawks were up 17-3 after the first quarter.
San Francisco 49ers pass rusher Nick Bosa sacks Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith. (Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images)
My only explanation is that the Seahawks fell in love with their passing attack. However, if Seattle's offense is this predictable, San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan will figure it out. Speaking of which, the better coach has a massive edge in these short weeks because they can devise a game plan faster.
That analysis is supported by the following trend: Since 2020, road favorites are 22-5 SU and 17-10 ATS with a +9.0 scoring margin on Thursdays. Those road favorites are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS with a +5.0 spread differential in division games over that span. Ultimately, the Niners should be at least -5 favorites over the Seahawks.
Prediction: 49ers 33, Seahawks 21
- For the record, "San Francisco -3.5" will be one of my Circa Million VI selections for NFL Week 6.
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