Fade Another Favorite In NFL Week 4: Seattle Seahawks At Detroit Lions On Monday Night Football
There is a Monday Night Football doubleheader in NFL Week 4 and the game that starts second is a lot more interesting than the first. The Detroit Lions (2-1) host the Seattle Seahawks (3-0) for an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff at Ford Field. As of noon ET Monday, Detroit is -4 favorites with a 47-point total across the board.
They are meeting for a third consecutive year. The Seahawks won the first two: 48-45 in 2022 and 37-31 in overtime last season. According to Inpredictable.com, Detroit is the fifth-highest power-rated team in the market, 2.9 points better than an average team, and Seattle is +0.5.
When you add 1.5-2.0 points for a home-field advantage, the Lions should be favored 5-5.5 over the Seahawks. Subconsciously, the betting public thinks they are getting a good number on Detroit too.
However, the average Joe is getting crushed betting the NFL. Underdogs are 10-4 against the spread (ATS) in Week 4, and they are 57.6% ATS on the season. Well, the Seahawks are going to improve that ATS record to 11-4 Monday because they have the better quarterback and defense.
Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald is a defensive mastermind
NFL analysts smarter than me say Macdonald is the "Kyle Shanahan of modern defenses". Supposedly, Macdonald does similar things with defensive spacing as Shanahan does on the offensive side of the ball. Through three weeks, Seattle has the best defense in the NFL.
Seattle is second in schedule-adjusted defensive efficiency, according to FTN, and first in yards per play (YPP) allowed, with a bullet. Going into Week 4, the Seahawks were giving up 3.9 YPP, and the next closest team was the Denver Broncos with 4.5 YPP allowed.
The Baltimore Ravens had the best defense in the league last season with Macdonald as their defensive coordinator. Remember, Baltimore stomped Detroit 38-6 last year. Lions QB Jared Goff was 33-for-53 with 284 passing yards, no touchdowns, one interception, a 68.4 QB Rating, and he ate five sacks.
Gimme Seattle QB Geno Smith over Detroit QB Jared Goff right now
After Week 3, Smith is ninth in EPA/play plus completion percentage over expectation and Goff is 27th, according to RBSDM.com. In Layman’s terms, that stat quantifies a quarterback’s ability to move the ball and throw his receivers open.
Goff isn’t playing well despite having maybe the best supporting cast in football. The Lions have a great offensive coordinator (Ben Johnson), the best offensive line in football, two above-average running backs (David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs), and a true No. 1 wide receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown).
Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith drops back to pass against the Detroit Lions. (Kirthmon F. Dozier-USA TODAY NETWORK)
Geno lit up Detroit in the past two years. Smith has a 77.5% completion percentage vs. the Lions in 2022-23, 324.0 passing yards per game, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 123.4 QB Rating. Also, Seattle has one of the best WR corp in the NFL and an elite left tackle, Charles Cross, to block Lions stud pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson.
The ‘soft schedule’ argument doesn't apply to the Seahawks vs. Lions
I've heard a lot of people make the argument that Seattle hasn't played anyone. But, per Pro Football Focus, the Seahawks have played the 29th-toughest schedule and the Lions, 31st. Seattle's first three opponents were the New England Patriots, Broncos, and Miami Dolphins. Detroit played the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Arizona Cardinals.
After Denver upset Tampa Bay last week and the New York Jets Sunday, that win looks more impressive for the Seahawks. Plus, a "win is a win" in the NFL this season given all the crazy upsets we've seen. And, if we are being fair, the Rams and Bucs were ravaged by injuries in their games vs. the Lions and the Cardinals play Swiss cheese defense.
Detroit should be 0-3 ATS
The Lions got two lucky covers. In Week 1, the Lions beat the Rams 26-20 in overtime as -3.5 home favorites. It’s a bad beat or lucky win whenever a favorite covers in overtime. Last week, Goff threw a would-be pick-six vs. the Cardinals as the two-minute-warning hit. But, the ref ruled the clock was at 2:00 before Goff snapped the ball and took points off the board.
Arizona got screwed because referees always give offenses the benefit of the doubt when the clock hits :00. The one time they didn’t just so happened to be a pick-six. That’s bad officiating, which isn’t predictive, and it cost the Cardinals seven points in a 20-13 loss.
Ultimately, my pro-Seattle handicap comes down to the market overrating Detroit and the Seahawks getting more than a field goal with the better quarterback and defense.
Prediction: Seahawks 25, Lions 19
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