Screw NFL Week 11 and BET These NBA Games Sunday
I should be mad at the NBA after an 0-2 Saturday. Instead, I blame on my "friend" who had a wedding and forced me to miss watching my bets. If I watched, I would've won. I know it.
Sunday will be different though. I "galaxy brained" these NBA picks and feel like I'm going to end the week on a high note. This is rare for me to say but I have ...
NBA 'Locks' For Sunday
Denver Nuggets (-3.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers, 6 p.m. ET tip-off
My biggest concern with backing the Nuggets here is their struggles vs. the spread on the road since last season. Plus, Denver is still missing All-Star PG Jamal Murray and doesn't have a deep roster.
However, I'm going to follow the herd Sunday and BET NUGGETS -3.5 (-110) because Nikola Jokic is the baddest MFer in the NBA and Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell is out.
This is the best version of Jokic who is a 2-time NBA MVP. The Joker is averaging career bests in minutes (34.8), points (29.7), rebounds (14.1), Win Shares per 48 minutes, and PER. He leads the NBA in the latter three.
Denver Nuggets big Nikola Jokic posts up against Cavaliers big Jarrett Allen at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland, Ohio. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)
The Nuggets lost Friday at the New Orleans Pelicans 115-110 despite Jokic putting up 26-16-18. Also, I have a hunch Jokic will be motivated to compete against one of the best defensive front-courts in the NBA in Cleveland bigs Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
Jokic crushed Allen and Mobley in the two Nuggets-Cavaliers meetings last season. He averaged a 26.0-16.5-11.5 vs. Cleveland last season with Mobley and Allen both active! If Jokic rips the Cavs heads off again Sunday, I'll take my chances Denver covers the spread.
Finally, the loss of Mitchell is too big for Cleveland to overcome. Mitchell is scoring an efficient 29.2 points per game with 4.9 rebounds and 5.3 assists. He has a +22.8 on/off net rating this season, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
My prediction: Nuggets 114, Cavaliers 108
Houston Rockets (+5.5) at Los Angeles Lakers, 9:30 p.m. ET tip-off
Houston had its 6-game winning streak snapped in a 106-100 loss at the LA Clippers Friday. But, the Rockets are 6-0-1 against the spread in their last seven games and lead the NBA in net rating over the past two weeks, per CTG.
The Rockets clubbed the Lakers 128-94 at home Nov. 8th. Granted, Anthony Davis was out with an injury and is in LA's projected starting 5 Sunday. However, LeBron James is "questionable" to play and LeBron has been the most important Laker this season.
Rockets SG Dillon Brooks yells at Los Angeles Lakers wing LeBron James at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. (Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
According to CTG, LeBron has a +29.1 on/off net rating, which ranks in the 99% of all NBA wings. King James is the only shot creator for the Lakers, aside from PG D'Angelo Russell who has maybe the worst basketball IQ in the NBA.
Lastly, Houston is a better 3-point shooting team, which is the most important aspect of basketball nowadays. LA is 28th in 3-pointers made per game and 25th in 3-pointers allowed per game. The Rockets are 2nd in defensive 3-point shooting and hit 14 threes vs. the Lakers earlier this month.