Schwellenbach Will Keep Braves Playoff Hopes Alive

Mets vs. Braves, 7:20 ET

I have to tell you, I really wish that football was still going on today. Monday Night Football doesn't get much better than what we got yesterday with three wins and all three were very easy. I even hit JaMarr Chase as the first touchdown scorer at +700, cashing that ticket and an anytime touchdown ticket at the same time for a solid eight units. Alas, we are back to baseball, which is still exciting and we are putting a play on arguably the best series of the week with the Mets taking on the Braves with a spot in the playoffs likely to be decided by the outcome of these games. 

The Mets have been a completely different team in the past three months than they were in the first couple. Since June 12th, they are 59-32. I'm not sure that it is the best record in the league, but it has to be one of the top three. The team started hitting, the pitching staff - a bunch of unheralded arms - put together strong start after strong start. They are now in a position to grab a Wild Card spot. It is still possible that both the Mets and Braves could find their way into the playoffs, but it is more likely only one of these two teams make it. Looking to start off the series on the right foot is Luis Severino. For the season, Severino is 11-6 with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He also has 156 strikeouts, all of these numbers are top-50 in the league. He has put together a beautiful September, with a 2.81 ERA and four consecutive quality starts. Severino has made two starts against the Braves this season and both were Mets wins, but both were at home. He went five innings and allowed two runs in both games. He has been significantly worse on the road this season as opposed to pitching in New York - at home, he has a 2.96 ERA and on the road, it inflates almost two runs to 4.80.

Jul 20, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA;  New York Mets starting pitcher Luis Severino (40) throws against the Miami Marlins in the first inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

The Braves should consider themselves lucky to be in this position. Just the idea that they can find their way into a potential playoff situation with all of their injuries is nothing short of amazing. The reality is that they won't feel lucky. They probably will be disappointed that they played 162 games and narrowly missed the playoffs. I truly hope some people give Marcell Ozuna a few MVP votes because the guy has saved the Braves offense this season. They come into this series 1.5 games back of the Diamondbacks, and two games behind the Mets. Simply put, they need to win. They turn tonight to Spencer Schwellenbach to get the opening game of the series. Schwellenbach is 7-7 with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He has been great for months now, allowing a total of 24 earned runs over the past 78 innings. He only has one start where he has allowed more than three earned runs in that span. His last two starts have been quality outings and arguably his best start in that stretch was against the Mets. He allowed just two hits and no earned runs while striking out 11 hitters in seven innings. 

Baseball has been decent this season, not as successful as the past few years, but not a disaster either. The Braves need to get the win tonight. The Mets need to fend off two teams looking to secure their spot in the Wild Card race. Luis Severino is not the guy I'd want on the hill in this one. Maybe at home, but not on the road. Schwellenbach did well in the one game he faced the Mets this season, but has been incredibly reliable at home. This is a high pressure game, but I have to back the Braves in this one. I'll take them at -135.

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