Three College Hoops Best Bets For Saturday Include UConn At Marquette

Published|Updated

Despite it being the first weekend without football since August, Saturday, February 1st has a dope slate of sports. This includes the 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the PGA TOUR, the Los Angeles Lakers visiting The Garden to play the New York Knicks in the NBA, the Royal Rumble (my favorite WWE pay-per-view event), and 140+ college basketball games. 

As I wrote earlier this week, I usually save my college basketball betting for March Madness. However, I'm 10-6-1 this year, so I'm starting early this season. Lord knows I need to keep winning in college basketball to cover my NBA and PGA TOUR losses, and for extra cash to bet on Super Bowl Sunday. With that out of the way, let's make money on the hardwood Saturday. 

College Hoops Best Bets: February 1

  • Georgia Bulldogs +12.5 (-105) at Alabama Crimson Tide via BetMGM, risking 1.05 units (u).
  • Texas Tech Red Raiders +10 (-110) at Houston Cougars via Fanatics Sportsbook, risking 1.1u.
  • UConn Huskies +6 (-110) at Marquette Golden Eagles via DraftKings, risking 1.1u.

Georgia (+12.5) at Alabama, 4 p.m. ET

The Bulldogs' (15-6, 3-5 SEC) aggressiveness could make it difficult for the Crimson Tide (18-3, 7-1 SEC) to get out in transition. #4 Alabama plays at the eighth-fastest offensive pace nationally, but Georgia is 13th in offensive rebounding rate and 26th in offensive FT/FGA rate, according to Ken Pom. 

Also, the Bulldogs are the 10th-tallest team in the country and their shortest starter, PG Tyrin Lawrence, stands at 6-foot-4, while Crimson Tide starting PG Mark Sears is 6-foot-1. Georgia's size and length should give Alabama fits. The Bulldogs can get into their offensive set since the Crimson Tide are 342nd in defensive turnover rate (TOV%). 

Most of Alabama's points come from behind the arc and the charity stripe. Well, per Ken Pom, Georgia is sixth out of 364 D1 basketball programs in defensive 3-point shooting rate (28.3%) and 56th in defensive FT/FGA rate. The Crimson Tide are 24th in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) and 19th in offensive FT/FGA rate. 

Georgia Bulldogs big Asa Newell drives to the hoop on the South Carolina Gamecocks in an SEC college basketball game at Stegeman Coliseum. (Photo credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images)

Georgia Bulldogs big Asa Newell drives to the hoop on the South Carolina Gamecocks in an SEC college basketball game at Stegeman Coliseum. (Photo credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images)

The college basketball gurus project this game closer than the betting market. Ken Pom has ‘Bama winning by 11 points and Erik Haslam gives the Crimson Tide a nine-point edge in this matchup. Since Alabama is #4 in the polls and Georgia is unranked, ’Bama will get a lot of "public money" Saturday, and I like fading the public in college sports. 

With that in mind, "Alabama -12.5" is a big number for a conference game. The Crimson Tide have just two home wins of 13+ points vs. Power 5 teams (I included the Big East among Power schools since it's criminally underrated and UConn is the reigning back-to-back national champions). The Bulldogs have two road losses of 13+ points to Power 5 teams. 

My buy-price is "Georgia +10.5". 

_____________________________

Texas Tech (+11) at Houston, 6 p.m. ET

There won't be enough possessions for the #6 Cougars (17-3, 9-0 Big XII) to cover a double-digit spread vs. the #22 Red Raiders (16-4, 7-2 Big XII). Per Ken Pom, Houston is 360th in adjusted tempo and first in net rating, whereas Texas Tech is 294th in tempo and 11th in net rating. Texas Tech's four losses are by a combined 11 points. 

Furthermore, the Red Raiders have a better shot profile. According to Bart Torvik, Texas Tech has a higher "dunk share" on offense (7.9-6.3%) and lower on defense (5.4-4.3%). The Red Raiders took more "close 2-pointers" and allow fewer too. 

Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Chance McMillian shoots a 3-pointer over the Texas Christian Horned Frogs at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock. (Photo credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images)

Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Chance McMillian shoots a 3-pointer over the Texas Christian Horned Frogs at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock. (Photo credit: Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images)

They have a higher offensive 3PAr and lower defensive 3PAr as well. Dunks, layups, and 3-pointers are the most efficient shots in basketball. The Cougars take more long 2-pointers and force fewer, which is the least efficient shot in hoops. 

Lastly, these teams play similarly against quality competition. Houston is 3-3 in Quad I games, and Texas Tech is 3-2. The Cougars are 10th in power rating vs. Quad I teams (95.7%) and the Red Raiders are 11th (95.3%), per Bar Torvik. 

My buy-price is "Texas Tech +9.5". 

_____________________________

UConn (+6) at Marquette, 8 p.m. ET

Five-Star Huskies (15-6, 7-3 Big East) freshman forward Liam McNeeley is a game-time decision to return from an injury that's kept him out since New Year's Day. Per Bart Torvik, #25 Connecticut was third in offensive efficiency before McNeeley's injury. 

That said, I'll take the Huskies +6 before McNeeley's official status is announced because they are the best program in college hoops with a better shot profile. For instance, UConn gets nearly twice the dunks as Marquette (11.4-5.8%), according to Bart Torvik. 

Also, the Huskies are 333rd in defensive 3-point shooting percentage, but 11th in defensive 3PAr, per Ken Pom. Preventing 3-point shots is more predictive than 3-point make percentages, especially in a high-level basketball game since good players will hit 3-pointers. 

Lastly, Connecticut is 8-2 straight up against the spread vs. #9 Marquette (18-3, 9-1 Big East) since returning to the Big East in 2020-21. Marquette's two victories over that span were by six and two points. 

My buy-price is "Connecticut +4" if Liam McNeeley plays. 

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my college basketball 2025 betting record via X all season.