'Same Game Parlays' For Both Monday Night Football Games In NFL Week 15: Bears-Vikings, Falcons-Raiders

The NFL has blessed us with two overlapping Monday Night Football games in Week 15: Chicago Bears (4-9) vs. Minnesota Vikings (11-2) at 8:15 p.m. ET and Atlanta Falcons (6-7) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) at 8:30 p.m. ET. Fans get grumpy about having two games playing concurrently on Monday but love the "Octobox" on NFL's Red Zone. 

As you can probably tell, I'm not one of those grumpy fans. If I had my way, there would be NFL football seven days a week. Hence, I'm cooking up two ‘Same Game Parlays' (SGP) to celebrate the NFL's Week 15 Monday Night Football doubleheader. For the record, these are Pizza Bets since my SGPs have fat payouts, but a lot of things need to go right. 

Bears vs. Vikings 5-Leg ‘SGP’ (+1300)

• Minnesota -3 alternate spread
• Vikings RB Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown
• Chicago RB D'Andre Swift UNDER 49.5 rushing yards
• Minnesota PK Will Reichard OVER 1.5 field goals made 
• Bears QB Caleb Williams OVER 22.5 rushing yards

Vikings -3 alternate spread 

Since this is a division game, Chicago was humiliated last week by the San Francisco 49ers 38-13, and Minnesota rolled the Atlanta Falcons 42-21, I'm going to adjust the Vikings' spread from -7 to -3. Granted, I was higher on the Bears than the market preseason and Caleb Williams is already one of my favorite NFL players. 

Nonetheless, typically it's best to fade recent results when betting on the NFL. Chicago covered as +3.5 home underdogs vs. Minnesota in a 30-27 overtime loss in Week 12. Although it was a backdoor cover with the Bears scoring 17 fourth-quarter points while recovering an onsides kick with 22 seconds remaining. 

I'm a man, so I don't like talking about my feelings. However, I have a feeling that "Vikings -7" is too big, whether the Bears play them tough or sneak in through the backdoor again Monday. 

Minnesota RB Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown

Jones is one of the best offensive players in the league and a dual-threat running back. With that in mind, Jones can score in a variety of ways, such as an explosive run or pass and a goal-line rush or a touchdown grab in the flat. He's scored in three consecutive games, including on the ground vs. the Bears in Week 11. 

Bears RB D'Andre Swift UNDER 49.5 rushing yards 

The Vikings are third in yards per carry allowed on defense and second in rushing yards allowed per game. Because Minnesota gets up early, its opponents have the lowest rushing rate in the NFL. This happened in Bears-Vikings Part I and Swift had just 30 rushing yards on 13 attempts. Swift averages just 3.8 yards per rush and has the sixth-worst rushing success rate. 

Vikings PK Will Reichard OVER 1.5 field goals made 

Chicago is second in defensive red zone conversion rate and held Minnesota to 3-for-7 on red zone trips a few weeks ago. As a result, Vikings second-string PK John Parker Romo made 3-of-3 field goals while filling in for an injured Reichard. That said, Reichard has hit 2+ field goals in five of his nine games this year, he was the first kicker taken in the 2024 NFL Draft, and this game is in a dome. 

Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams scrambles away from the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field. (Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images)

Chicago QB Caleb Williams OVER 22.5 rushing yards

Pinnacle Sportsbook, a "market-making" shop offshore, has Williams rushing prop at 24.5 yards with more juice on the Over. Whenever the legal U.S. sportsbooks are "off-market" from Pinnacle, which accepts the biggest bets in the world, I usually side with Pinnacle. 

Also, Chicago's offense only looks good when Williams goes into "hero mode". The Bears will probably need him to use his legs if they abandon a traditional run game to play catch-up. Williams scrambled six times for 33 yards vs. the Vikings in Week 11. He has run for 27+ yards in eight of his 13 games this season. 

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Falcons vs. Raiders 4-Leg ‘SGP’ (+800)

• Atlanta -6 game spread
• Las Vegas TE Brock Bowers UNDER 63.5 receiving yards 
• Raiders RB Sincere McCormick OVER 9.5 receiving yards 
• Las Vegas QB Desmond Ridder OVER 0.5 Interceptions 

Falcons -6 

I gave out "Atlanta -4" as one of my five picks in Week 15 of the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest. I went 3-1 Sunday, and I'm 7-2 when picking road favorites in the Circa Million this season. 

On one hand, I'm happy the market is moving toward me. On the other hand, we are getting a worse number Monday. Either way, I'm putting this into my ‘SGP’ since it's a Pizza Bet instead of a Rent Check Bet. 

Raiders TE Brock Bowers UNDER 63.5 receiving yards 

If you're Atlanta's coaching staff, don't you think: "Well, if we take away Bowers, how else will Las Vegas score"? Atlanta safety Jessie Bates III has the 12th-best grade among 92 qualifying NFL safeties, per Pro Football Focus. It would be insane for the Falcons to allow a linebacker to solo cover Bowers instead of doubling him with Bates. 

Plus, Bowers' OVER receiving yards prop will likely be popular Monday. He averages 71.8 receiving yards per game, so people will think they are getting a good price with Over/Under 63.5 yards. But, "means" are more important than "averages" when betting player props, and Bowers has 58+ receiving yards in six of 13 games this year. 

The Under for Raiders TE Brock Bowers' receiving yards prop is a leg in my 'Same Game Parlay' for the Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas on Monday Night Football in Week 15. (Sam Navarro-Imagn Images)

Las Vegas RB Sincere McCormick OVER 9.5 receiving yards 

This is correlated with the Bowers Under look above. Bowers' gravitational pull will give McCormick one-on-one matchups vs. a linebacker. Furthermore, McCormick might get an easy check-down in garbage time since the Falcons will smack the Raiders and Las Vegas backup QB Desmond Ridder sucks. 

Lastly, McCormick is outplaying the Raiders' other running backs. He averages 5.5 yards per rush and has a 62.5% rushing success rate. In contrast, Las Vegas RB Ameer Abdullah rushes for 4.2 yards per carry with a 44.4% success rate and RB Alexander Mattison rushes for 3.3 yards per carry with a 37.1% success rate. 

Raiders QB Desmond Ridder OVER 0.5 Interceptions 

Speaking of "Ridder sucks", he threw 12 interceptions in 13 starts for the Falcons last season. His 3.1% interception rate was tied for third-worst in the NFL last year. After a terrible game last week vs. Minnesota, where Atlanta's secondary lost a few jump balls, I'm expecting a bounce-back performance by the Falcons' secondary against a quarterback they are familiar with. 

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