The New-Look Sacramento Kings Should Pummel A Banged-Up Dallas Mavericks Monday

We have a possible Western Conference postseason play-in tournament game here. Seeds 7-10 in both conferences participate in the NBA postseason play-in tourney for the final four playoff spots. The 10-seed Dallas Mavericks (32-29) host the 9-seed Sacramento Kings (31-28) at American Airlines Arena Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET. 

Both made major changes at the NBA trade deadline. Dallas infamously sent perennial NBA MVP finalist Luka Dončić to the LA Lakers for draft capital, SG Max Christie, and All-NBA big Anthony Davis, who is already hurt. Sactown flipped former PG De'Aaron Fox for wing Zach LaVine and added C Jonas Valanciunas for a bench player and two second-round draft picks. 

The Kings have multiple scorers, while the Mavericks rely solely on All-Star combo guard Kyrie Irving. Dallas eked past Sactown 129-128 in overtime in their last meeting Feb. 10. Yet, that was LaVine's fourth game with the Kings, and he's been shooting 58.8% since the NBA All-Star Game.

Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks Odds (DraftKings) 

• Moneyline: Sacramento (-130) | Dallas (+110)
• Spread: KINGS -2 (-112) | Mavericks +2 (-108)
• Total — 232 — Over (-112) | Under (-108)

Post-All-Star break, the Mavs are 2-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), most recently losing to the Milwaukee Bucks 132-117 as +2.5 home underdogs. The Kings, on the other hand, are 3-1 SU and ATS. They have a three-game winning streak and cruised past the Houston Rockets 113-103 as +4 road underdogs Saturday. 

Sacramento is missing a three-time All-Star, and the NBA's leading rebounder, C Domantas Sabonis. However, Dallas's entire frontcourt is injured, including AD, centers Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively, and forwards P.J. Washington and Caleb Martin. 

Sacramento Kings backup C Jonas Valanciunas shoots over Dallas Mavericks forward Kessler Edwards at the American Airlines Center. (Photo credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images)

Sabonis's absence definitely hurts Sacramento's playoff chances, but Valanciunas can hold down the fort, at least in this matchup. Again, the Mavericks don't have a frontcourt and Valanciunas is a bully in the paint. He has a +8.3 on/off net rating in his nine games with the Kings, per CleaningTheGlass.com. 

Valanciunas scored 15 points and grabbed 14 rebounds vs. the Rockets Saturday, who have one of the best defenses in the NBA. Lastly, Sacramento doesn't need Sabonis's playmaking because it has three shot creators, such as LaVine, SF DeMar DeRozan, and combo guard Malik Monk. 

Prediction: Sacramento 121, Dallas 113

• I'm locking in a 1.12-unit wager on the KINGS -2 (-112) at DraftKings, whereas they are -2.5 at most sportsbooks. For what it's worth, I'm willing to bet Sacramento up to -3.

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