Ryder Cup 2023: Team USA Will End European Drought Plus Best Bets For Top Scorers

This is my first Ryder Cup since I began betting golf in the beginning of 2022. The Ryder Cup is biennial tournament played between Team USA and Team Europe alternating between American and European golf courses.

Team USA is the reigning Ryder Cup champion, clobbering Team Europe 19-9 in 2021 at Whistling Straits in Wisconsin. Both teams have 12 golfers: Six automatic qualifiers and six captain's picks.

The last time the Americans won in Europe was in 1993. This year, the Marco Simone Golf and Country Club in Rome, Italy hosts the Ryder Cup.

Team USA

Automatic Qualifiers | Captain's Picks

Team Europe

Automatic Qualifiers | Captain's Picks

Team USA with the trophy following their 19-9 victory at the 43rd Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits in Sheboygan, Wisconsin. (Keyur Khamar/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)

The Ryder Cup has a point-based system with 28 possible points. The 1st team to score 14.5 points wins. This is a 3-day event. There are two waves of Foursome and Four-Ball on both Friday and Saturday. Then the Ryder Cup wraps up with 12 singles matches Sunday.

Unfortunately, no Foursomes, Four-ball or single lineups have been decided. There's a lot of speculation how the captains will partner the golfers. But, as of Wednesday, September 27th, all we can do is guess.

Honestly, I prefer full-field stroke play PGA Tour events instead of this match play format. There are bigger longshots that can actually win and more actionable markets. But, golf is my favorite sport to bet on and I need something aside from football to diversify gambling portfolio this weekend.

Marco Simone is a Par 71 measuring 7,181 yards with Bentgrass greens, narrow fairways, strategically placed bunkers and water hazards. Conditioning is the key. There are a lot elevation changes so Marco Simone is a difficult course to walk. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in the mid-80s in Rome Ryder Cup weekend.

Ryder Cup 2023 Best Bets

Team USA “To Lift Trophy” (-125) at PointsBet

In order to be the Ryder Cup champion, you need to beat the current champion. This means if the 2023 Ryder Cup ends in a 14-14 tie, the current holder of the cup retains it. Granted, there hasn’t been a tie since 1989.

However, this is the reason for a 3-way line in the “Outright Winner” market at PointsBet: Team USA (+105), Team Europe (+100), and Tie (+900). Despite the unlikeliness of a tie, I’m still not fussing with the 3-way line.  

Anyway, my rationale for backing the Americans to do something they haven’t done since 1993 is because they are a deeper squad. Team USA has seven major winners on the team including the 2023 PGA Champion (Koepka), U.S. Open champion (Clark), and Champion Golfer of the Year (Harman).

Team Europe on the other hand have five former major champions, which is not too shabby. But, three of the four European Ryder Cup rookies have never won a PGA Tour event. Neither has Englishman, Tommy Fleetwood.

Per Ron Klos of Betsperts, the Americans have a better average Official World Golf Ranking: 12.8 average OWGR for Team USA and 29.2 average OWGR for Team Europe. Over the last year, the Americans have a +1.68 total Strokes Gained (SG) whereas the Europeans have a +1.34 total SG. 

Day 3 Winner (No Tie), Team USA: -110

This will have to be a betting market you have to Google yourself. Our partners at PointsBet haven’t released a line for Day 1, 2, or 3 winners so I had to use one of the other legal U.S. sportsbooks. 

That said, Sunday at the Ryder Cup, is when the 12 head-to-head matchups tee off. This is where Team USA has a real edge over Team Europe. The four American rookies would all be favorites over the four European rookies in their would-be singles matches. 

Furthermore, only three of the 10 Europeans with history in match play have a winning “singles record”: Rory, Rahm, and Justin Rose.

Team Europe golfers Rory McIlroy, Nicolai Hojgaard, Justin Rose, and Matt Fitzpatrick walk the 15th hole during a practice day for the Ryder Cup at Marco Simone. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)

Team USA has seven golfers with a winning singles record. This includes the back-to-back WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play champions Scheffler (2022 and runner-up in 2021) and Ryder Cup rookie, Sam Burns (2023). 

Because I’m such a golf stat nerd, you bet I created a “2023 Ryder Cup” model. Well, six of the top 10 golfers in my stat-based model play on Team USA including World No. 1, Scheffler. 

Overall Top Scorer at the 2023 Ryder Cup: Jon Rahm (+900) at PointsBet

This might be the 1st time I've bet Rahm because, usually, his odds are too low and I talk myself into someone else. However, a major part of handicapping the Ryder Cup is figuring it how much a golfer will play.

Well, Rahm played five matches at the 2021 Ryder Cup out of a possible five matches. Rahm will almost definitely play five matches in this Ryder Cup. Especially, considering how top-heavy Team Europe is.

Team Europe golfer Jon Rahm hits his tee shot on the 14th hole during a practice day for the Ryder Cup at Marco Simone Golf and Country Club. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)

Plus, Rahm is the 2023 Masters champion and Augusta National Golf Club is a comp course to Marco Simone. Like Augusta, Marco Simone is a difficult course to walk with a lot of elevation changes and has Bentgrass greens.

Finally, Rahm has an intensity that lends itself well to Ryder Cup competitions. He's got a winning record in career singles matches, career team matches, and at the Ryder Cup.

Top Wildcard Points Scorer: Collin Morikawa (+700) at PointsBet

First of all, Morikawa won all three Foursome and Fourball outings at the 2021 Ryder Cup. Morikawa tied Hovland in his singles match. He will most likely be paired up with Homa who Morikawa teamed with at the 2023 Zurich Classic.

Also, Marco Simone has extremely narrow fairways. Morikawa leads this field in Good Drives Gained over the last 50 rounds, according to Fantasy National. He has the highest rate of Good Drives Gained (+0.80 SG) at difficult courses, per Ron Klos.  

Team USA golfer Collin Morikawa during a practice day for the Ryder Cup at Marco Simone Golf and Country Club. (Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports)

Morikawa is the best iron player in the world. He leads the field in SG: Approach at courses with difficult scoring conditions. Collin's accurate driving and precise iron play is why he leads this field in scoring chances over the last 50 rounds. 

Homa is a solid all-around player with an elite short-game. Morikawa is one of the captains of "Team No-Putt." If partnered together, Team Homakawa could be a tough out. Morikawa will set up the scoring chances and Homa will knock down the putts.

Top Rookie Points Scorer: Sam Burns (+500) at PointsBet

Burns almost guaranteed to play with Scottie Scheffler in Foresomes. That’s the round where golfers play one ball and alternate shots. There’s one Four-Balls round and a Foursome round Friday and Saturday.

Because it makes so much sense to pair Burns up with Scheffler, maybe Burns will play five 2023 Ryder Cup matches. Burns and Scheffler are best friends and go vacationing together with their wives.

Team USA golfers Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns walk the 10th fairway at Marco Simone Golf and Country Club. (Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports)

Scheffler’s Achilles heel is putting. He led the PGA Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green in 2022-23. Scheffler only won two tournaments last season because he sucked with the putter. If Scheffler could putt he would’ve easily won four or five tournaments last season.

Burns on the other hand is lights out with the putter. Over the last 75 rounds, Burns leads the field in SG: Putting. Burns is 7-0-1 in single matches for his career and won the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. He beat Scheffler in the semi-finals of the Dell.