Running It Back With The 2024 Cleveland Browns Winning The Super Bowl, AFC North

NFL 2024 is around the corner. Last year, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. I'll preview every team to prepare for the upcoming year, give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. These are mostly ‘picks’ but I'll tell you which bets are ‘in pocket’. The Cleveland Browns are the second AFC North team I'm previewing after the reigning division champion Baltimore Ravens. 

I will "rip the band-aid" off on this awful take: I’m a big "Deshaun Watson fan." The football player, not the man. If the allegations are true, he’s an absolute scumbag. That said, Watson is my favorite football player. He has made me the most money of any athlete since his sophomore season with the Clemson Tigers. 

Browns QB Deshaun Watson rolls out during OTAs at Cleveland's training facility in Berea, Ohio. (Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

I successfully bet Clemson +5.5 in its 45-40 loss to Nick Saban and Alabama in the 2016 College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championship. Before the game, I predicted the biggest takeaway from the title game would be "Watson is the best player in the country". Then I successfully bet Watson and the Tigers on their 35-31 upset of Alabama in the 2017 CFP national championship. 

This continued when he played for the Houston Texans from 2017-20 and started playing for Cleveland after a year-long injury in 2021 and an 11-game suspension in 2022. And, as ridiculous as this sounds, I’m still holding all of my Watson stock (again, the football player, not the man). 

Cleveland Browns 2024 Odds

Courtesy of FanDuel at 1:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, August 7. 

• Super Bowl: +4000
• Conference: +2200
• AFC NORTH: +600
• Playoffs: Yes (+145) | No (-175)
• 8.5 Wins: Over (-135) | Under (+115)

Maybe this is "confirmation bias," but Watson’s best game of the season was his last. He led the Browns to a double-digit, fourth-quarter comeback 33-31 win over the eventual 1-seed Baltimore Ravens on the road. Watson completed 14-of-14 passes for 139 yards and one touchdown in the second half of that victory. (Of course, I took the points with Cleveland that week). 

Remember, Baltimore waxed everyone last season, including the Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers, and a Watson-less Browns 28-3 in Week 4. This performance, plus the fact that Watson was 4-1 as a full-game starter, gives me confidence he’ll return to his Pro Bowl form. 

Meanwhile, two-time NFL Coach of the Year, Kevin Stefanski, hired Ken Dorsey as his new offensive coordinator this offseason. Dorsey was the quarterbacks coach for the Carolina Panthers from 2013-17 and the quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator (OC) for the Buffalo Bills from 2019-23.

RELATED: Browns' Coach Kevin Stefanski And GM Andrew Berry Rewarded For Being Good

Panthers QB Cam Newton won the 2015 NFL MVP with Dorsey as his quarterbacks coach. Dorsey also helped turn Bills QB Josh Allen into the perennial MVP contender he is today. Watson isn’t as athletic as Newton and Allen, but he is athletic. 

Dorsey can draw up RPO concepts for Watson and use his athleticism as he did for Newton and Allen. Buffalo had one of the best offenses in the league with Dorsey as its OC and pass-game coordinator. 

Cleveland Browns consultant Mike Vrabel, head coach Kevin Stefanski, QB Deshaun Watson, and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey during practice. (Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, Cleveland surrounded Watson with weapons. Browns WR Amari Cooper (72-1,250-5) is a five-time Pro Bowler and just turned 30 in June. They took a flyer on slot WR Jerry Jeudy, who the Denver Broncos drafted with the 15th pick in 2020, and had terrible quarterback luck in his first four NFL seasons. 

Cooper is still a bonafide No. 1 WR. Jeudy has untapped potential because he never had a chance with those crappy quarterbacks throwing him passes in Denver. A light turned on for Cleveland TE David Njoku, who had his best season as a seven-year pro (81-882-6). 

Technically, Cleveland was 29th in FTN’s "Adjusted Games Lost" due to injury last season. I say "Technically" because the Browns lost Watson in Week 10, RB Nick Chubb in Week 2, starting LT Jedrick Wills Jr. after eight games, and RT Jack Conklin in Week 1. 

READ: Nick Chubb Is Squatting 540+ lbs. Less Than 8 Months After ACL Surgery. Are We Sure He's Human?

Chubb is a perennial NFL Offensive Player of the Year candidate when healthy. In his six NFL seasons, Chubb averages 5.3 yards per rush. Cleveland’s offensive line is one of the best in the league and its biggest strength. I.e. the Browns were the most injured team in the NFL last season. 

I haven’t even talked about Cleveland’s defense, one of the best in the league under first-year defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Not only did the Browns retain Schwartz, but they also hired former Tennessee Titans head coach, and 2021 NFL Coach of the Year, Mike Vrabel as a consultant. 

Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett sacks Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson at M-and-T Bank Stadium in Maryland. (Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)

They upgraded the linebacker room by signing veteran LB Jordan Hicks in free agency. Vrabel is a former linebacker for Bill Belichick and that's the only average spot on Cleveland's defense. Otherwise, all the Browns' starters return in 2024, including pass rusher Myles Garrett, who I correctly bet to win the 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. 

‘Best Bet’ For the 2024 Cleveland Browns: To Win The AFC North (+600) 

The TLDR-version of my 2024 Cleveland Browns preview: Cleveland won 11 games without four of its most important offensive players and the Browns improved their coaching staff this offseason. 

With that in mind, I’m betting Cleveland across the board in 2024: Super Bowl (+3500), to win the AFC (+2200) and the AFC North (+600). Ultimately, if I bet the Browns in 2023, why wouldn’t I bet them again this year? 

Actual NFL 2024 Futures in the account 

• Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns (+2700)
• Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South (+1100)
• Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence to throw for 4,000+ yards (+165)
• Houston Texans WR Nico Collins to lead the NFL in receiving yards (+2900)
• 3-team division-winning parlay: Panthers, Jaguars, and Cleveland Browns (+31400)
• Cleveland Browns ‘Ladder’ Futures: Super Bowl (+3500), AFC (+2200), and AFC North (+600)

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