Royals Have Good Value Against Rays

Rays vs. Royals, 2:10 ET

A 1-2 day was not what I was looking to try and have happen yesterday. I know that when you're running hot you want to get more bets in, and when you're running cold, you should tighten up a bit. I have not been running hot and still decided it would be a good idea to play three games. The results were not what I was looking for. We will see what happens today as I am heading back to the drawing board with this one between the Rays and Royals.

The Rays are 10 games above .500. I feel like I mention this in every article about the Rays, but it certainly bears repeating. They are the one franchise that I feel like gets more out of their roster than any in the league. We expect the Dodgers to be successful because they have big names and acquire anything that they need to make their roster better. The Rays do not have deep pockets. The team is consistently getting rid of their top talent before they pay for them, and they still find ways to win games. Top to bottom, this has to be one of the most successful franchises with their resources in baseball history. Today they send out Shane Baz for the club. Baz is 7-3 with a 4.79 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. While he hasn't been great at home this season, he has done pretty well on the road, going 35.1 innings over six starts, and throwing to a 3.57 ERA. He only has one road start this year where he has allowed more than three earned runs. Royals hitters do have a lot of success in limited experience though, hitting .385 against him in 26 at-bats.

May 24, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz (11) throws a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays in the first inning at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Royals are another team that doesn't have a ton or resources, and you could argue that over the past 20 years, they have been pretty successful. The problem is that just because they have had some success, it hasn't been consistent at all. They are four games under .500 right now after coming into the season with the expectation that they would be one of the best teams in the American League Central. There is still time to turn it around, but they are going to need to get their offense and pitching staff both to improve - no small feat. Michael Lorenzen is taking the rock for them today. He enters the contest with a 4-7 record, a 4.81 ERA, and a 1.37 WHIP. Lorenzen has also been better at home this campaign, but he has only five home starts compared to 10 on the road, so it is a bit small of a sample size. Rays hitters haven't been great against him, hitting just six for 33 over his career.

If you only pick games for the favorite, you're probably not going to make money long term. If I picked the Rays and they lose, I lose 1.3 units. If I take the Royals and they lose, I lose only 1 unit. I'm not advocating to only take dogs, either. However, in a game that seems to give a better edge and value to the Royals today, that's the way I'm going. They are plus money, which makes it better to me. I also think the under 10.5 is a good look.

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