Roll On These Two Road Favorites In The MLB Monday
Since the 2023 NBA Conference finals are all but over, I have extra betting bandwidth to use Monday on MLB. It's an off-day for several clubs so the MLB's Monday card is a little lackluster.
Last week, I went 3-3 in MLB but took a slight loss because of the vig. But, I'm eager to add units to my MLB 2023 bankroll. Below, I'll give out a couple of winners (ideally) in the Cardinals-Reds and Astros-Brewers tilts.
Making money Monday in the MLB
St. Louis Cardinals (21-27) at Cincinnati Reds (19-27)
Betting odds for the Cardinals vs. Reds Monday, May 22nd from DraftKings as of 1 p.m. ET.
The Cardinals give LHP Jordan Montgomery (2-6, 4.21 ERA) the start Monday. He will face Reds rookie LHP Brandon Williamson who earned a no-decision in Cincy's 3-1 win at the Colorado Rockies in his MLB debut.
St. Louis has been raking lately and is much better against lefties than the Reds. Over the past two weeks, the Cardinals' hitters lead MLB in WAR, wRC+, and wOBA and are 2nd in BB/K rate, per FanGraphs.
Cardinals 2B Nolan Gorman shouts as he runs the bases after hitting a 3-run HR vs. the LA Dodgers at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. (Scott Kane/Getty Images)
This season, St. Louis's lineup out-ranks Cincinnati's vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+ (121-83), wOBA (.345-.304), ISO (.190-.126), BB/K rate (0.38-0.30), and hard-hit rate (37.5-27.7%).
Since the beginning of last year, the Cardinals are 12-3 straight up (SU) as road favorites vs. lefty starters and 10-5 on the run line (RL). St. Louis has a +25.4% return on investment on those RL wagers.
MLB Best Bet #1: Cardinals -1.5 run line (-120), up to -125
Houston Astros (27-19) at Milwaukee Brewers (24-19)
Betting odds for the Astros vs. Brewers Monday, May 22nd from DraftKings as of 1 p.m. ET.
The Astros give starting RHP Cristian Javier (4-1, 3.25 ERA) the nod Monday. Brewers counter with RHP Corbin Burnes (4-3, 3.48 ERA) who is dining on his 2021 NL Cy Young but has fallen off significantly since then.
In 2021, Burnes struck out 35.6% of his batters faced, walked just 5.2%, and gave up a home run in only 1.1% of plate appearances. This year, Burnes has a 21.6% K rate, 8.9% BB rate, and 2.4% HR rate.
Milwaukee Brewers start Corbin Burnes walks off the field after pitching vs. the Giants at Oracle Park in San Francisco. (John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports)
On top of that, Milwaukee's bullpen ranks 26th in K-BB%, 27th in WAR, and 29th in FIP ("fielding independent pitching"), per FanGraphs. Houston's bullpen ranks 7th in WAR, 3rd in FIP, and 2nd in K-BB%.
The Astros' relievers are more well-rested than the Brewers. Houston got a complete game shutout from starting LHP Framber Valdez Sunday. Milwaukee used its three best relievers by ERA Sunday in a 6-4 win over the Rays
Lastly, the Astros are 7-3 SU as road favorites in 2023 while the Brewers are 1-3 as home underdogs.