Road Teams Make Up Thursday's NBA Best-Bet Daily Double
I keep getting eaten up by the vig when betting basketball. My 1-1 performance Wednesday in the NBA lowered my bankroll to -3.60 units (u) and my season-long record is 26-26. Not ideal but not horrible either. Regardless, I need some action on top of my Bengals-Ravens bet so I added ...
NBA Thursday Looks
Brooklyn Nets (+3.5) at Miami Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
If you read my NBA betting content regularly, you know I'm a "Heat guy." After losing money on Miami much of last regular season, I made most of it back during the Heat's run to the NBA Finals. So I went into this Nets-Heat handicap expecting to bet Miami.
Brooklyn won the first meeting 109-105 in South Beach as +7 underdogs earlier this month. But, the Heat have won and covered the six games since. They return to Miami after a 4-game road trip. NBA teams are usually sluggish in their 1st game home after a road stand.
Yet I'd argue most of those wins aren't impressive. The only winning team of that bunch are the Atlanta Hawks. Granted, the Heat were missing both Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler. However, Miami owns Atlanta.
Brooklyn Nets wing Mikal Bridges goes for a layup vs. the Heat at Kaseya Center in Miami. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Also, styles make fights, and the Nets are a tough matchup for the Heat. Brooklyn has a lot of long, 3-and-D guys that can defend Butler and Bam Adebayo. The Nets are 5th in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) and 3rd in 3-point shooting. Miami is 23rd in 3PAr allowed on defense, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Herro is still out and Brooklyn was missing combo guard Spencer Dinwiddie and stretch-4 Cameron Johnson in the 1st Nets-Heat meeting this season. Per CTG, Dinwiddie has a +17.6 on/off net rating and Johnson is +4.5. Plus, Herro led Miami with 30 points vs. Brooklyn Nov. 1st.
Finally, this spread is suspiciously low considering how well the Heat have been playing recently. They were -7 favorites vs. the Nets 15 days ago. Thursday, Miami is only -3.5 despite Brooklyn missing two starters in guards Cam Thomas and Ben Simmons.
My prediction: Nets 111, Heat 106
Oklahoma City Thunder (-3) at Golden State Warriors, 10 p.m. ET tip-off
This isn't a hyperbole but Golden State is bad without Steph Curry. Klay Thompson and Warriors SF Andrew Wiggins have been terrible this season and Chris Paul isn't a reliable scorer anymore. Draymond Green is suspended for putting Timberwolves big Rudy Gobert in a chokehold Tuesday.
Furthermore, this is a "good spot" for OKC who is 27-18-1 against the spread (ATS) after a loss since last season. The Thunder have a +4.9 ATS margin in those games as well. They covered in a sketchy 141-139 loss Nov. 3 vs. the Warriors Nov. 3 without All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA).
Oklahoma City Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drives to the basket vs. the Golden State Warriors at the Chase Center in San Francisco. (Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports)
Lastly, the Thunder are playing better basketball than the Dubs. Oklahoma City has the 5th-best shot selection in the NBA, per CTG, and Golden State is dead-last. The Thunder is 7th in offensive free-throw rate (FTr) and the Warriors are 27th defensively.