Rickie Fowler, Viktor Hovland Among Wells Fargo Championship 2023 'Horses For The Course'

After a lackluster stretch on the PGA Tour calendar, we are back for another "elevated event" with a star-studded field. The 2023 Wells Fargo Championship tees off Thursday, May 4th at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Granted, Wells Fargo's field is a little less "star-studded" than previous "elevated events" this season. Both World No. 1 Jon Rahm and No. 2 Scottie Scheffler are skipping the Wells Fargo to rest up for the 2023 PGA Championship in a couple of weeks.

Max Homa celebrates with the trophy after winning the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in Maryland. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Max Homa is the defending Wells Fargo champion but last year's event was played at TPC Potomac at Avenal Farms. However, Homa did win the 2019 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow.

The last golf event I bet was the RBC Heritage in mid-April. My PGA Tour 2022-23 balance climbed to -1.67 units (u) after winning +1.14u at the 2023 RBC Heritage. My recap of that event is at the bottom of this post.

Wells Fargo Championship's ‘Horses for the Course’

Viktor Hovland

Everyone knows Hovland is terrible around-the-green (ARG). But, ARG play isn't as important at Quail Hollow as at other golf courses and Hovland is an elite ball striker.

Hovland ranks 7th in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Ball-striking (BS) and 8th in SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT) over the last 36 rounds. Hovland's length OTT and precision with long irons will help at Quail Hollow.

He ranks 9th in Par 4 scoring and 6th in Par 4 efficiency from 450-500 yards. Pending on pin locations, Quail Hollow could have as many as seven Par 4s within that range.

Viktor Hovland hits an approach shot at the 11th hole during the final round of the 2023 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia. (David Cannon/Getty Images)

Hovland has been an even better ball striker at tough courses. He is 2nd in my key stat model over the last 24 rounds at courses longer than 7,400 yards (Quail Hollow is roughly 7,500 yards) with difficult scoring conditions.

In those events, Hovland ranks 6th or better in Good Drives Gained, SG: OTT, SG: Approach (APP), Proximity (PROX): 175-200+ yards, and Par 4 scoring.

Hovland is 2nd in this field for total SG at comp courses used and he finished 3rd at his only start at the Wells Fargo in 2021.

1st Wells Fargo Thoroughbred: Viktor Hovland

Collin Morikawa

This is mostly a zag on the golf betting market even though Morikawa is one of "my guys". Most golf gamblers are shopping for bombers who are good putters on Bermudagrass, which is the greens for Quail Hollow.

Morikawa is a notoriously crappy putter and isn't very long OTT. He is just 101st in this field for driving distance over the last 36 rounds and 142nd in SG: Putting on fast Bermuda greens over the last 24 rounds.

What Morikawa lacks in driving distance he makes up for with his long irons. Over the past 36 rounds, Morikawa is 2nd in this field for SG: APP, 5th in PROX: 175-200 yards, and 8th in PROX: 200+ yards.

Collin Morikawa plays a 2nd shot on the 18th hole in Round 4 for THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)

More than 50% of the approach shots at Quail Hollow are longer than 175 yards. Morikawa is always hitting his 2nd shot from the fairway. He is 1st in this field for Good Drives Gained, which is a blend of distance and accuracy.

This is Morikawa's 1st Wells Fargo Championship. Quail Hollow Club went through renovations in 2016 to host the 2017 PGA Championship. Well, Morikawa plays well at majors and courses with difficult scoring conditions.

Over his last 24 rounds, Morikawa is 4th in this field for total SG at long courses with difficult scoring conditions. Morikawa is a 2-time major winner and has finished T10 or better in the last two Masters and U.S. Opens.

2nd Wells Fargo Thoroughbred: Collin Morikawa

Jason Day

I tried to talk myself out of betting Day again but he keeps making me money and Day is 2nd in my Wells Fargo power rankings. Day ranks 5th in my key stat model: 9th in SG: BS and 1st in Par 4 scoring.

He is 3rd in total SG over his last six events. Day finished 7th at the Farmers, 5th at the Phoenix Open, 9th at the Genesis, 10th at the Arnold Palmer, and 19th at THE PLAYERS.

The Farmers, Genesis, Arnold Palmer, and THE PLAYERS are all played at comp courses to Quail Hollow. With that in mind, Day is 3rd in this field for total SG at comp courses.

Jason Day poses with the trophy after winning the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Day won the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship, finished T5 at the 2017 PGA Championship and is 3rd in total SG at Quail Hollow over the last 50 rounds.

Also, Day's amazing short-game makes him a threat at any event. J Day has picked up 3.5 strokes per start over his last five events, is 8th in 3-Putt Avoidance over the last 36 rounds, and 1st in Scrambling during that stretch.

3rd Wells Fargo Thoroughbred: Jason Day

Rickie Fowler

Fowler is 5th in my Wells Fargo power rankings but is tied for the 15th-best odds to win this tourney. He is 19th in my key stat model: 18th in Par 4 scoring, 12th for Greens-in-Regulation Gained, 4th in SG: APP, and 13th in SG: BS.

It's been a while since he's won an event however Fowler does have true win equity. Fowler won the 2012 Wells Fargo albeit pre-renovations but finished 4th at the 2019 Wells Fargo and T5 at the 2017 PGA Championship.

Rickie Fowler plays an approach shot on the 11th hole during the 1st round of the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Furthermore, Fowler is in great recent form. He's 6th in this field for total SG over the last six events and has finished T20 or better in six of his last seven starts.

At the end of the day, this is just a gut-feeling bet. This is my 2nd season betting on golf, I've never bet on him and Fowler has worked on his swing in recent years. He is due for a win soon and I'm buying stock on Fowler.

4th Wells Fargo Thoroughbred: Rickie Fowler

RBC Heritage 2023 Betting Recap: +1.14 units (u)

“Horses for the course”

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