Reds Will Take Down Red Birds

Reds vs. Cardinals, 7:45 ET

Baseball wasn't the best look for me yesterday as I went 1-2, losing a full unit. The win was on the Royals game where I told you all to back the Royals. Although it was plus money, and we were profitable in the game as a result, I lost us on the total as I expected the teams to have a bit more offensive firepower. The loser was on the game between the Padres and Mariners as George Kirby couldn't do enough to keep the Padres offense down, and the Padres stole a road victory. As the season winds down, I'm hopeful I can deliver some more consistent winners as we have this game between the Reds and Cardinals today.

At the beginning of each season there are inevitably some teams that end up starting slowly. I make a point about this because when you look at the small sample size of the games, the poor record is reflected rather obviously. If a team goes 3-9 in the middle of the season, it isn't always easy to know that they are struggling when their record has padding on both sides. With the Reds, they are 71-75 which is a respectable enough standing for a team that has no starting pitching. But, what you might not know about them is from April 25th until May 23rd, they were terrible. In that span, the lost 20 games. They won six, and never won a back-to-back game. They started the day at 14-10 and ended at 20-30. Take that stretch out of this season, and the team is 65-55. Sometimes all it takes is one bad stretch to ruin a season. However, I share this to explain that the team isn't actually that bad, they just really struggled for a month and it likely cost them their year. Now they are left evaluating players as we are in the final month. Tonight, they take a look at Brandon Williamson, a left-hander making his third appearance for the club. Williamson has been fine in his other two appearances, going a total of eight innings and allowing just two earned runs. He's allowed only four hits and one walk while striking out six. He does have experience against the Cardinals, allowing just three hits in 18 at-bats against him.

Apr 22, 2024; St. Louis, Missouri, USA;  St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Lance Lynn (31) pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

If we want to talk about the start of a season being a struggle, the Cardinals might be a good team to examine. They were above .500 when they were 5-4, then they had a bad stretch and landed at 15-24. It looked like the team was going to once again suffer through a brutal year. Somehow they snapped out of it, but still didn't reach above .500 until they were 36-35 on June 17th. It was probably too late already as the Brewers were playing good and consistent baseball all season. St. Louis did have a chance to make the postseason via a Wild Card berth, but that hope has been almost completely eliminated as they've gone four games under .500 in the second half of play. They are 11 games back in the division and 6.5 in the Wild Card race. No matter how you look at this team, work still needs to be done. They are -66 in run differential meaning their pitching and offense have left a lot to be desired. One of the pieces they added in the offseason to try and patch up the rotation is today's starter, Lance Lynn. Lynn has made us a lot of money in the past few years, but he has also stumbled over the past year and a half. He missed all of August with injury, but returns here in hopes of closing the season strong and perhaps going for one more year. He faced the Reds twice this season and allowed a total of just one earned run via a solo homer in 12 innings. In that span, he struck out 11 hitters, walked four and allowed seven hits.

The Cardinals are one of the more inconsistent teams to bet on. You never really know when their offense will show up. Their pitching has been shaky at best, and the rotation features a lot of players that can do well, but probably have had their best seasons behind them. The Reds kind of remind me of the Royals and I think this season ends with them trying to figure out who to put together for next year. I like Williamson and think he can lead the Reds to a win at least through five innings, I'll back the Reds first five at +120.