Reds Will Crush Nationals To Open Post All-Star Break

Reds vs. Nationals, 6:45 ET

Baseball is back - I mean it never really left considering we had a Home Run Derby on Monday, and an All-Star Game on Tuesday. But, the past two days have been off days for all teams, and now they come back for the remaining 60-ish games for the season. This season seems a bit more well-scheduled than I remember past seasons being. The end should be a really fun stretch. We have the trade deadline coming up shortly, then another couple of months of a playoff race and changes from the deadline. I'm excited and I'm going to get started on a big second-half run as the Reds take on the Nationals. 

The Reds have to make some good progress here as we begin this period of baseball. They currently are under .500 at 47-50, but that's not all that far back in the division (eight games, not insurmountable, but probably unrealistic) and very close in the division at three games behind the last Wild Card spot. If the Reds fall further back in the race within the first week, expect them to start flipping players for prospects and building upon the future. The team should spark interest as they have a .231 batting average and a team that has hit 108 homers. Their pitching staff has done a good job with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP, and that will also draw attention from opposing teams. The Reds have played good baseball outside of a stretch from April 30th to May 23rd. They were 4-17 in that stretch. Take away that brutal stretch, the team is 43-33. The GM will have to make some tough calls, but a hot start could force them to buy instead of sell. Tonight they put Opening Day starter, Frankie Montas, on the hill for them. Montas is 4-7 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. He had a solid enough June going 25.1 innings and allowing 10 earned runs, but he struggled in his most recent start against the Rockies as he allowed five earned runs over seven innings. He's only made two starts in July, but he has allowed two home runs in both games. He does have a tendency to have some control issues, but if he avoids those he typically has a strong outing. He opened the season against the Nationals and three six scoreless innings where he allowed just four hits and struck out four hitters. 

Apr 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Patrick Corbin (46) throws against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Nationals are surprisingly good this season. They are 44-53 and I have to imagine they are already on the side of selling for their team. Still, they held strong for longer than I thought they were going to. Coming into the year, I was expecting them to finish in last place within the division. If it wasn't for the Marlins, that probably would come true. However, there are some other positives to take away from this club. They are hitting .239 collectively, but have only scored 402 runs. The Reds have a lower batting average but have scored 30 more runs and hit 28 more home runs. Their pitching staff has been better than I expected, and they are getting young guys a ton of experience. While they will probably want to keep the majority, I am sure there are some guys that will find their way into a new uniform soon. Tonight they put their contractual albatross on the mound as Patrick Corbin takes center stage. Corbin has been brutal for years and has the worst contract in baseball. His ERA hasn't been below five in years. He is 1-9 with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. For the season, he has made five quality starts. He has allowed four or more earned runs in nine of his 19 starts. He faced the Reds in his first start of the year and allowed four earned runs over 4.1 innings. Overall, Reds hitters are hitting .446 against him.

I wouldn't be surprised if this game hits the over, but I am shocked at how low the line is for the Reds. Corbin is a bad pitcher, and Montas may not be great, but he is good enough to grab this one. The Reds are at -118 to win the game. I'm taking that and running with it as I fully expect the Reds to be the better team here and motivated to get off to a good start. 

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