Red-Hot Padres Will Continue September Surge Vs. Giants Monday
It might be a little too late but the San Diego Padres (77-79) are playing their best baseball of the year. San Diego has won nine of its last 10 games entering a three-game set at Oracle Park on Monday vs. the San Francisco Giants (77-79).
The opposite is true of the Giants. They are 2-8 over the last 10 games. San Francisco is now tied with the Padres 5.0 games out of the third and final NL wild card seed. Since last season, San Diego is 19-10 vs. San Francisco and 6-4 in 2023.
San Diego Padres starter Blake Snell throws a pitch vs. the Giants at Oracle Park in San Francisco. (Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports)
Both teams send their aces out to the mound Monday. The Padres give LHP Blake Snell (14-9, 2.33 ERA), and heavy 2023 NL Cy Young favorite the ball. Whereas the Giants send RHP Logan Webb (10-13, 3.35 ERA) to the hill.
Over his five starts vs. San Francisco since 2022, Snell is 4-1 with a 0.61 ERA and a 46/11 K/BB rate including three consecutive six-inning, 0-ER victories.
Padres at Giants odds (PointsBet)
Betting odds for the Padres at Giants as of Monday, Sept. 25th at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Snell's advanced pitching numbers vs. San Francisco are better than Webb's against San Diego. Per Statcast, Snell has a 34.7% K-rate in 118 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Giants hitters with a .298 expected slugging percentage (xSLG). Webb has a 21.9% K-rate and .374 xSLG in 105 PA vs. current Padres batters.
Also, a big part of San Diego's recent winning streak has been it's red-hot hitting. This month, the Padres lead MLB in WAR, wRC+, wOBA, and BB/K rate, according to FanGraphs.
Padres OF Juan Soto celebrates with Xander Bogaerts after hitting a 3-run homer vs. the St. Louis Cardinals at Petco Park in San Diego. (David Frerker-USA TODAY Sports)
Padres sluggers Xander Bogaerts and Juan Soto in particular are hitting the cover off the ball. Soto has a .346/.441/.718 with 8 HRs and 25 RBIs in 21 games this month. Bogaerts has a .427/.472/.744 slash line in Sept.
Moreover, San Francisco's lineup struggles against lefties. Per FanGraphs, the Giants rank 24th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching, 26th in wOBA and 28th in both BB/K rate and hard-hit rate.
Finally, we are seeing sharp line movement toward San Diego in the betting market. According to Pregame.com, the Padres opened around -107 and are up to as high as -122 at some sportsbooks.