RBC Heritage 2024 Betting Card: Outrights, Top Finishing Positions, One-And-Done

Some people in the golf media complain about the RBC Heritage 2024 following up The Masters without a break between the two big events. The Masters is golf's 1st major and the RBC Heritage has the same size prize pool ($20 million) and winner's share ($3,600,000). However, as a golf gambling junkie, I love it. We get to see the best players on the PGA TOUR play in a no-cut event. What's not to like? 

LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark's RBC Heritage 2024 Betting Preview Ft. Brendan McCorkle 

More importantly, I need to bounce back after a costly Masters. I didn't bet Scottie Scheffler, so I lost my seven outright picks. I chopped Cameron Smith to win the "Top LIV Tour Golfer" market with Byron DeChambeau when they tied for with at Augusta and went 1-2 in my tournament matchup bets. All in all, I sunk -5.4 units (u) at The Masters and my PGA TOUR bankroll is -36.62u in 2024. 

Whatever. On to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina 

RBC Heritage 2024 ‘Starting 5’

Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies, Fantasy National by Pat Mayo, and the PGA Tour. 

Cameron Young (+2800)

Typically, winning at Harbour Town requires a top-tier short-game, which is not Young's strength. He's a bomber and there are only six driver holes at Harbour Town, per Bet The Number. Young has never won on TOUR, but had five runner-up finishes in his PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year season in 2021-22. So, you are probably asking "Why is Young the shortest favorite on your RBC Heritage betting card"? 

Well, he is starting to play like the guy who won PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year in 2021-22. Over the last 16 rounds, Young is 9th in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Tee-to-Green (T2G) and 8th in SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT). Young has four top-10 finishes this season, including a T8 at the WM Phoenix Open, T4 at the Cognizant Classic, solo 2nd at the Valspar Championship, and a T9 at The Masters last week. 

Furthermore, Harbour Town requires accuracy OTT and Young's driving accuracy has been 13.2% better than the PGA TOUR average over the last 24 rounds, according to Bet The Number. All the doglegs force golfers to hit less than driver OTT and leave APP shots in the 150-200-yard bucket. Young is 8th in approach (APP) shots from 130-210 yards, over the last 32 rounds. 

Also, most people will overlook Young at Harbour Town because he doesn't feel like a good fit for the course. However, Harbour Town is a "links-style course" and Young has a solo 2nd in the 2022 Open Championship and T8 at last year's Open. The flatness of these courses helps him think of other shots golfers cannot make because they don't have the same power in their swings. 

The bottom line is Young will overpower Harbour Town as he did St Andrews and Royal Liverpool at the last two Open Championships. He tied for 51st in last year's RBC Heritage, but had a T3 two years ago. Young was +10.7 SG: T2G, +4.6 SG: OTT, +2.8 SG: APP, and even +3.3 SG: Around-the-Green (ARG). 

The first roster spot for Harbour Town: Cameron Young 

• Win: +2800 at FanDuel (0.7u to profit 20u)
• Top-Five: +450 at BetMGM (0.5u to profit 2.25u)

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Shane Lowry (+4500)

Aside from last week's disappointing T43 at The Masters, Lowry has been playing well this season. His Masters' performance wasn't all that bad. Lowry was +6.7 SG: T2G and +6.4 SG: APP. He putt himself out of the tournament by losing 7.4 strokes on the greens at Augusta. 

But, the Irishman cashed a top-20 bet at THE PLAYERS Championship last month with a T19. In the two weeks prior, Lowry finished T4 at the Cognizant and solo 3rd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Over the last 16 rounds, Lowry is 2nd in this field for both SG: T2G and driving accuracy. He sucks with the flat-stick, but ranks 17th in SG: ARG over the last 32 rounds. 

Shane Lowry watches his fairway shot during the 2022 RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links in South Carolina. (David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports)

Finally, Lowry has true "win equity" in this tough field with success at links-style courses and plays well at Harbour Town. He is the 2019 Champion Golfer of the Year after winning the Open at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland, another links-style course. Lowry tied for 67th at last year's RBC Heritage but was T3 in 2022, T9 in 2021, and T3 in 2019. 

The second roster spot for Harbour Town: Shane Lowry

• Win: +4500 at BetMGM (0.5u to profit 22.5u)

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Tom Kim (+5000)

We are "buying low" on Kim, who has sucked this season. His best finish is a T17 at the WM Phoenix Open in February. That said, Kim may have unlocked something in his game at Augusta last week. The 21-year-old South Korean was +11 through the 1st three rounds at The Masters before carding a Sunday-best 66 in the final round.  

Adding to that, Harbour Town is a great fit for Kim. This is a "plodders' course" where precision is more important than length. Last season on TOUR, Kim was 10th in SG: APP and 12th in driving accuracy. One of his three career wins on TOUR was the 2022 Wyndham Championship, which is on a crossover course to Harbour Town. 

Joohyung 'Tom' Kim reacts after winning the 2022 Wyndham Championship. (Nell Redmond-USA TODAY Sports)

Lastly, Kim finished T6 in the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club then T2 in the 151st Open Championship at Royal Liverpool. The Renaissance Club and Royal Liverpool are flat, coastal, and windy links-style courses such as Harbour Town. If Kim is playing his game, these 50-to-1 odds are great value. 

The third roster spot for Harbour Town: Tom Kim 

• Win: +5000 at FanDuel (0.5u to profit 25u)
• Top-20: +150 at BetMGM (0.75u to profit 1.3u)

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Justin Thomas (+5000)

I've whiffed twice on Thomas this season at THE PLAYERS and last week's Masters. But, I'm going back to the well because my numbers say JT at 50-to-1 has value. He is 11th in my 32-round model at Bet The Number and has roughly the 25th-best odds at FanDuel. Thomas is 6th in SG: APP on TOUR this season and 3rd in this field for SG: ARG over the last 32 rounds. 

JT is 2nd in this field for total SG at no-cut events and 1st for total SG at Pete Dye courses shorter than 7,200 yards, per Fantasy National. Thomas had the worst season of his career last year on TOUR and looked poised to have a bounce-back season before the recent missed cuts. His best finish in 2024 is a T3 in The American Express at Pete Dye's PGA West Stadium Course. 

Justin Thomas plays from the 18th fairway during the 2nd round of the 2024 RBC Heritage. (David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports)

I'll forgive Thomas for last week's missed cut at Augusta. JT was even par entering the final four holes in the 2nd round of The Masters. However, the crazy wind conditions got the better of him and Thomas shot +7 on the last four holes Friday. On top of that, Augusta is a completely different course than Harbour Town. If Thomas lets me down again this week, I swear he's on the "ban list". 

The fourth roster spot for Harbour Town: Justin Thomas

• Win: +5000 at FanDuel (0.5u to profit 25u)

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Taylor Moore (+7000)

This is a "value play" because the RBC Heritage is a "big boy" event with the best golfers on TOUR. Yet, Moore has been great T2G lately. Over the last 16 rounds, Moore is 8th in this field for SG: T2G, according to Bet The Number. His finishes in those four starts are a T31 at THE PLAYERS, a T12 at the Valspar, a T2 at the Houston Open, and a T20 at The Masters. 

Taylor Moore hits a shot out of the bunker during the final round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship 2023. (Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports)

Additionally, the short-game is more important at Harbour Town than ball-striking. Moore is 7th in this field for SG: ARG over the last 32 rounds and 19th in SG: Putting on Overseed, which is the grass for Harbour Town's greens. He finished T2 at the 2023 RBC Heritage while gaining nine strokes on the greens. All he needs to do is match last year's putting with his recent ball-striking, and he can contend at Harbour Town. 

The fifth roster spot for Harbour Town: Taylor Moore

• Win: +7000 at FanDuel (0.3u to profit 21u)

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Additional Finishing Position Bets for the 2024 RBC Heritage 

Normally, I bet all of my outright picks in the placement markets. But, I've ditched that strategy for the time being because it hasn't been working this season. Before we get into my top finish position wagers, just know that BetMGM is the only legal U.S. sportsbook that pays out ties. The other sportsbooks apply "dead heat" rules, which can significantly reduce winnings for top-5, -10, and -20 bet bets. 

Matt Fitzpatrick, Top-10 (0.5u: +200) 

The reigning RBC Heritage champion is putting his a** off lately. For instance, Fitzpatrick was +7.3 SG: Putting in a T5 finish at THE PLAYERS, +4.2 SG: Putting in a T10 at the Valspar, and +5.6 SG: Putting at last week's Masters. Fitzpatrick has gained strokes T2G in six straight starts at Harbour Town and has a T4 in 2021 on top of his win last year. 

Matthew Fitzpatrick poses with the champions trophy after winning the 2024 RBC Heritage. (David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports)

Lucas Glover, Top-20 (0.75u: +160) 

There is a lot to like about Glover this week. I just don't think he can win even though the RBC Heritage is a "pitch-and-putt contest", which are two things Glover is good at. Over the last 32 rounds, Glover is 3rd in driving accuracy and 6th in both SG: APP and 6th in SG: ARG, per Bet The Number. Granted, he won back-to-back events at the end of last season. 

These include the Wyndham, the last event of the PGA TOUR regular season and the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the 1st round of the FedExCup Playoffs with the best players on TOUR. And Glover is in good form. He finished T20 at the Masters last week, T25 at the Valero Texas Open two weeks ago, and solo 11th at the Valspar last month. 

Chris Kirk, Top-20 (0.75u: +160) 

Despite not having a lot of power, Kirk is 10th SG: OTT on TOUR this season because he is 15th in driving accuracy. Plus, Kirk is good with his short-to-mid irons, which is key to success at Harbour Town. He is 10th in APP shots from 50-125 yards out and 5th in APP from 125-150 yards on TOUR this season. Since the RBC Heritage is a no-cut event, Kirk could backdoor a top-20. He is 5th in birdie-or-better rate this season.  

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Tournament Matchup: Patrick Cantlay over Tommy Fleetwood 

While Fleetwood is entering the RBC Heritage in better form, Cantlay is the better overall golfer with true "win equity". Cantlay has eight career wins on the PGA TOUR and Fleetwood has zero. Four of Cantlay's wins have been in "big boy" events such as two Memorial Tournaments and two BMW Championships, the 2nd round of the FedExCup Playoffs. 

Patrick Cantlay hits it a tee shot on the 10th hole during the final round of the RBC Heritage 2023. (David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports)

Moreover, Cantlay is stellar in this event. He has one missed cut in the 2021 RBC Heritage. Cantlay's other five starts at Harbour Town include a solo 3rd last year, a playoff loss to Jordan Spieth in 2022, a T3 in 2019, a T7 in 2018, and a T3 in 2017. Fleetwood arguably has a better short-game. But, Cantlay's edge in ball-striking is far greater than Fleetwood's short-game edge for this matchup. 

Bet 0.75u on Patrick Cantlay to beat Tommy Fleetwood in the 2024 RBC Heritage at DraftKings (+100) 

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RBC Heritage 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Cameron Young 

From a One-And-Done perspective, the Masters was a nightmare. My pick, Wyndham Clark, missed the cut and I banked no money. After the 14 events of the 2024 Mayo Cup (the One-And-Done contest I entered this season). I'm tied for 1,104th out of 4,400 entries with $6,404,229 collected and I'm outside of the money If the Mayo Cup ended today.

Previous Picks

1. J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
2. Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
3. Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
4. Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
5. Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
6. Collin Morikawa for the Genesis Invitational: T19 for $251,400
7. Taylor Pendrith for the Mexico Open: Missed cut for $0
8. Tom Hoge for the Cognizant Classic: T28 for $59,014
9. Scottie Scheffler for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: 1st for $4,000,000
10. Hideki Matsuyama for THE PLAYERS Championship: T6 for $875,000
11. Min Woo Lee for the Valspar Championship: Missed cut for $0
12. Keith Mitchell for the Houston Open: Missed cut for $0
13. Corey Conners for the Valero Texas Open: T25 for $67,735
14. Wyndham Clark for The Masters 2024: Missed cut $0

My other option for the 2024 RBC Heritage is Cantlay, but I'd prefer to save him for the Memorial if he's playing at that time. Again, Cantlay won the Memorial twice and that's a "signature event" with one of the highest 1st-place purses on TOUR. 

Cameron Young hitting his driver in the 2023 RBC Heritage Pro-Am at Harbour Town Golf in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)

That said, Young is the highest-ranked player in my 32-round model for the 2024 RBC Heritage that's still available. My top-ranked golfer is Scottie Scheffler, who I correctly picked to win the Arnold Palmer. The 2nd guy on my RBC Heritage power rankings is Xander Schauffele, who I foolishly used at The American Express. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.