Ravens Motivated By Underdog Status Vs. 49ers Christmas

Oh, the Baltimore Ravens (11-3) are aware they are +5/+5.5 underdogs at the San Francisco 49ers (11-3) Christmas night in NFL Week 16. Most of Baltimore's best players are talking about it including LB Roquan Smith and Lamar Jackson.

"We feel a little disrespected by that. I feel like we are the best team in the league, and we have an opportunity in front of the country to show it."

Honestly, I love this energy from Lamar and his teammates. Plus, the Ravens have made me a lot of money this season. I bet Baltimore when it rolled the Detroit Lions 38-6 in Week 7 and steam-rolled the Seattle Seahawks 37-3 last month.

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson scrambles against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium in Florida. (Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union)

Furthermore, this is usually a profitable spot to back the Ravens. They are 8-4 straight up (SU) and 11-0-1 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs in the regular season with Jackson under center. Lamar is 19-1 SU vs. NFC teams and 14-6 in primetime games.

That said, San Francisco is clearly the best team in the NFL. The Niners are healthy on offense and head coach Kyle Shanahan is the best NFL coach without a Super Bowl. If anything, San Francisco's spread is more disrespectful.

The value is with the 49ers

First of all, according to my numbers, San Francisco should be at least -6 favorites over Baltimore Christmas. The 49ers lead the NFL in point differential, net yards per play, and net early-down success rate.

More importantly, their team is stacked. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy is the favorite to win 2023 NFL MVP. Niners RB Christian McCaffrey is the 2nd-best graded running back among 61 qualifiers, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).

San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy hands the ball off to RB Christian McCaffrey vs. the Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

San Francisco LT Trent Williams has the 2nd-highest grade among 83 qualifying tackles. 49ers TE George Kittle is 1st at his position. San Francisco WRs Deebo Samuel is the 11th-best wideout and Brandon Aiyuk ranks 2nd.

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The 49ers are 13-2 SU and 10-4-1 ATS as home favorites vs. teams with a winning record since hiring Shanahan in 2017. They are 6-2 SU and ATS vs. teams with a 70% winning rate or higher over that span. San Francisco has a +7.4 spread differential in these games.

Also, the Niners have All-Pro talent on three levels of their defense. San Francisco pass rusher Nick Bosa is the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year. 49ers LB Fred Warner is the best linebacker in the league, per PFF. Warner is the perfect guy to have spying Lamar.

Finally, the bottom line is if these teams met in the Super Bowl, the 49ers would be -3.5 over the Ravens. They get a 2.5-point boost for being the home team Monday. Baltimore's hurt feelings aside, San Francisco is the "right side" here.