Ravens Will Cover Against Texans Who Have No Reason To Try

Ravens vs. Texans, 4:30 ET

There are two thoughts that I had about the Christmas Day games for the NFL. The first was that clearly they don't care about player safety at all. They are making four teams play two games within five days and three games within 10 days. I'm sure the players want to play, and the fans want to watch, but this league continues to do stupid things for their image. The other thought was that Christmas is an NBA day. A lot of people won't watch the NBA until Christmas, and to be honest, this season, you haven't missed much. It has been awful, and this comes from an avid NBA lover. I'm thankful we have the gift of the Ravens and Texans to watch, and bet on, this year.

The Ravens are still looking to lock up some sort of home game for the playoffs. It seems hard to imagine that the team is still in this position considering how well they've played offensively this year. Lamar Jackson is going to finish as an MVP finalist and might be having his best year ever with 3,787 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. The addition of Derrick Henry has certainly worked out, as he has accumulated 1,636 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground this year. There is no question this offense, even without a true top receiving option is dangerous. So how do they have five losses for the year? I think some of the finger pointing can go toward the defense that is great at stopping the run, but bad at defending the pass. This isn't ideal in a passing league. For part of the season, I thought that maybe the issue was that the Ravens were ahead so often that they gave up more passing yards simply because they had people throwing on them constantly. It doesn't appear that is the sole reason, although it still is probably a contributing factor. 

Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) shows concern for injured wide receiver Tank Dell (3) (not pictured) during the second half of the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The Texans have already won their division and are not going to move up or down in the standings. They are getting a home game and they are going to play the first weekend of the playoffs. So, what is the point of their next two games? Pride, I suppose. There really is no justification for them to play full games at this point. I wouldn't take my starters out because that would be too long before the playoffs to rest them, but I can tell you I wouldn't be running Joe Mixon or Nico Collins out there for every snap either. I also think I'd probably let CJ Stroud play half of a game and then move him to the bench. The goal is to stay sharp for the playoffs, but also not risk injury. They just lost Tank Dell in the game against the Chiefs - they can't afford to lose more pieces. At this point in the season everyone is a bit banged up, but you have two weeks where you can let them manage their pain and injuries without risk. This is both team's third game in 10 days, so it isn't like they are going to be overly excited to play. Fatigue will be a factor. 

I mentioned this in my game between the Chiefs and Steelers, I think both teams are going to be tired and not score a ton of points. This isn't the optimal situation for teams and you have one that really has no incentive to play. The Ravens could still capture the division so there is no question they will fight the full game, but why would you if you're the Texans? I'm going to back the Ravens, but I think the under is a strong look as well. 

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