Ravens Are Gonna Roll Chiefs In AFC Championship En Route To Super Bowl 58
This is going to sound crazy so stick with me here. But, I'm FADING the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 AFC conference championship when they visit the 1-seed Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium Sunday. As of 3 a.m. ET Friday, the Ravens are -3.5 (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook.
You're going to hear a lot about Kansas City's playoff experience and Patrick Mahomes' record as an underdog this week. After beating the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round last week, Mahomes is now 8-3 straight up (SU) in his career as an underdog and 9-1-1 against the spread (ATS).
However, this overshadows how much better Baltimore is than Kansas City. The Ravens have rose to the occasion for every big-game. Their 33-19 win at the San Francisco 49ers Christmas night followed by a 56-19 rout over the Miami Dolphins in Week 17 are the two most impressive victories of the season by any team.
According to Aaron Schatz, creator of the popular NFL stat "DVOA", says Baltimore is the hottest team entering the conference championship from 1981-2023. The three teams directly behind the Ravens all won the Super Bowl.
Plus, Baltimore is a sneaky tough place to play. In the NFL, home-field can be worth anywhere from 2.5-3.5 points. M&T Bank Stadium is one of the venues worth nearly 3.5 points to the Ravens. Don't just take my word for it. Listen to Mahomes discuss playing in Baltimore during his ManningCast appearance earlier this season.
Also, the Chiefs beat up on two soft, injury-riddled defenses in their 1st two playoff games. The Bills were missing seven defensive contributors in the divisional round. KC's 1st playoff victim, the Miami Dolphins, were down five defensive starters in Super Wild Card Weekend.
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Baltimore's defense on the other hand is at full strength and the best in the NFL. The Ravens gave up the fewest points per game during the regular season and led the NFL in sacks. They have the perfect personnel to defend the Chiefs.
Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton celebrates a pick-six with LB Roquan Smith vs. the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. (Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports)
For instance, Ravens linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen are both great in pass coverage. They have S Kyle Hamilton, who is one of the best at his position, behind them for support. Those three guys are the best you can ask for to cover future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce.
Furthermore, Kansas City's offense isn't as scary as previous seasons. The Chiefs have 28 turnovers this season, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. Their WR corp has been a weak spot as well. Rookie WR Rashee Rice leads KC's wideouts with 79 catches and the next closest Chiefs WR has 27 receptions.
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce runs after a catch vs. the Buffalo Bills in the 2024 AFC divisional round at Highmark Stadium in New York. (Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports)
For what it's worth, I lean to Under 44.5 because Kansas City's defense is great against the pass. That said, Baltimore's offense has a strength-on-weakness edge on the ground. The Ravens are 3rd in yards per rush and 5th in ESPN's run-block win rate. The Chiefs are dead-last in run-stop win rate and 25th in yards per rush allowed.
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With that in mind, the eventual 2023 NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson, will be the best player on the field Sunday. The Houston Texans threw Jackson a curveball last week by blitzing nonstop in the 1st half. Baltimore struggled then adjusted at halftime and scored 24 unanswered points in the 2nd half.
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson scores a TD on the Houston Texans in the 2024 AFC divisional round at M&T Bank Stadium. (Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports)
The Chiefs blitz at the 7th-highest rate in the league. If they send the blitz when Lamar drops back, he is going to make Kansas City defenders miss and get out in the open field. Otherwise, the Ravens can run all over the Chiefs in the AFC championship.
Lastly, Mahomes and Kansas City's Andy Reid are a better QB-coach combo than Lamar and Ravens head coach John Harbaugh. Yet, that gap doesn't supersede Baltimore's dominant defense. Again, this sounds crazy but the Chiefs won't score 20 points Sunday.