Random Golfers To Back For A Random 2023 RSM Classic
Betting on the PGA Tour is a labor of love for me. After crushing it two years ago, my PGA Tour 2022-23 betting season sucked. Granted, I cashed seven outright winners over the last 13 months. However, I'm happy for this season to wrap up with The RSM Classic 2023 this week at Sea Island Golf Club in St. Simons Island, Georgia.
Adam Svensson poses with the trophy after winning the 2022 RSM Classic at Sea Island Golf Club's Seaside Course in St Simons Island, Georgia. (Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)
Surprisingly, the RSM Classic's field is pretty strong this season. Ten of the top-50 in the Official World Golf Rankings are teeing it up at Sea Island this week. The field includes reigning RSM Classic winner Adam Svensson and 2023 Champion Golfer of the Year Brian Harman.
Heads up: Every golfer will play one round at the Seaside Course and the other at the Plantation Course at Sea Island Thursday or Friday. Seaside will host the RSM Classic's third and final rounds. Hence most of the modeling I did for the 2023 RSM Classic is for the Seaside Course.
Before I get into my RSM Classic 2023 card, let me first discuss my betting strategy. I'm looking to win 20 units (u) for any outright bet. I'll make a placement bet to win 1u plus my outright bet for all golfers backed.
Pro tip: Most sportsbooks apply "dead heat" scoring to ties for placement bets. The only legal U.S. shop that pays out ties is BetMGM Sportsbook. However, I'm using the best available odds for my outright bets, which I find at Oddschecker.com.
RSM Classic 2023 'Horses for the Course'
Chris Kirk
A recent recipient of the PGA Tour's Courage Award, Kirk is fetching a great price. Kirk is third in my 2023 RSM Classic power rankings. Over the last 50 rounds, Kirk ranks 10th in my stat-based model and seventh in total Strokes Gained (SG) at comp courses to Sea Island.
Also, Kirk's game obviously fits Seaside since his first win on the PGA Tour is this event back in 2013. This course tests your short-iron and wedge play. Well, Kirk leads the field over the last 50 rounds in Proximity (PROX): 125-150 yards.
Furthermore, the Georgia alum is third in this field for Par 4 Efficiency (EFF): 400-450 yards. That's significant because there are nine Par 4s at Seaside within that distance. Kirk's only blemish on my 2023 RSM Classic power rankings is his putting.
Chris Kirk plays an approach shot during the final round of The RSM Classic 2022 at the Seaside Course. (Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
Over the last 24 rounds, Kirk ranks 104th in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens. That said, Kirk's win this season in The Honda Classic was at PGA National, which has Bermuda greens. Kirk gained +5.6 SG: Putting that weekend.
Like Seaside, PGA National is a course with a ton of water. It's also one of the toughest tracks on the PGA Tour. So if Kirk can win at PGA National, he can pick up a second career victory at Seaside. As long he has a "spike putting" week.
1st RSM Classic 2023 thoroughbred: Chris Kirk
Denny McCarthy
This is more of an eyeball bet since McCarthy is only 14th in my 2023 RSM Classic power rankings. The best number I can find is 35-to-1, which gives McCarthy roughly the eighth-best odds to win this event. But, the average winning score for the past five RSM Classics is 20-under, so I'm expecting a "birdie-fest".
In order to win birdie fests, you need to knock down putts and D-Mac is one of the best putters on Tour. This season, McCarthy is third in SG: Putting and he is 22nd in this field over the last 24 rounds on Bermuda greens.
Denny McCarthy lines up a putt in The RSM Classic 2022 at Sea Island Golf Club in St Simons Island, Georgia. (Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
The Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club is a crossover event to the RSM Classic since both host courses have a ton of water in play. McCarthy lost to Viktor Hovland a playoff at the 2023 Memorial and placed T5 in 2022.
Over the last 50 rounds, D-Mac ranks fifth in this field for Good Drives Gained, which blends distance with accuracy. I.e. McCarthy will have a lot of approach shots from the fairway. Finally, McCarthy is first in Par 4 EFF: 400-450 yards.
2nd RSM Classic 2023 thoroughbred: Denny McCarthy
Chesson Hadley
This guy, who I've never bet before and I confuse with at least three other golfers, ranks sixth in my RSM Classic 2023 power rankings. At first, I ignored this blip. Then I looked at Hadley's +7000 odds at FanDuel and became intrigued.
Apparently, Hadley is playing well. Over the last 24 rounds, good ole Chesson is eighth in this field for total SG. He has back-to-back T7 finishes in the World Wide Technology Championship and Shriners Children's Open entering the RSM.
Hadley has missed the cut in two consecutive RSM Classics but has picked up strokes on the greens in three straight. If he continues that putting, Hadley should go well at Seaside considering the other parts of his game.
Chesson Hadley hits the ball off the 14th tee The RSM Classic 2021 on the Plantation Course at Sea Island. (Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)
Over the last 50 rounds, Chesson is ninth in my stat-based model. Hadley is second in this field for PROX: 125-150 yards, 14th in Par 4 EFF: 400-450 yards, and 14th in SG: Approach over that span. Approach is the most predictive stat in golf.
Again, this is mostly a "numbers play" on a random golfer. But, "random golfers" have won this event in recent years. Svensson won last season with 125-to-1 odds, Robert Streb won in 2020 with 300-to-1 odds, and Tyler Duncan at 150-to-1 odds in 2019. So Hadley winning this RSM Classic wouldn't be nearly as shocking from an odds perspective.