Random College Basketball Bets From Bored NBA Handicapper
In the words of NFL great, RB Marshawn Lynch: "I'm only here so I don't get fined." While my bosses aren't busting my chops about my lack of betting activity, I do need to ramp up the college basketball handicapping with March Madness right around the corner. It's been tough finding stuff to bet on since the Super Bowl and during the NBA's All-Star break.
I say all this as a warning to anyone who might tail these bets. Granted, I did the homework. But, my betting on college basketball Wednesday is due to boredom and needing something to write about until the NBA returns Thursday.
No. 12 Illinois Fighting Illini (-7.5) at Penn State Nittany Lions, 6:30 p.m. ET
Penn State has fallen off hard under 1st-year head coach Mike Rhoades. Last season, the Nittany Lions went 23-14 and won an NCAA Tournament game. Currently, they are 12-14 (6-9 in the Big Ten) and won't make the Big Dance unless they win their conference tournament.
For Illinois, it's business as usual. The Fighting Illini are on track to make their 4th consecutive NCAA Tournament and are one of the teams that can knock off Purdue in the Big Ten tourney. This is a big number for any team to lay on the road in a conference game. However, 10 of Penn State's 14 losses this season have been by at least eight points.
Illinois Fighting Illini SG Terrence Shannon Jr. is pumped after a bucket vs. the Northwestern Wildcats at Welsh-Ryan Arena. (Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports)
(Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, Illinois has a massive edge on the glass. The Fighting Illini grab 8.8 more rebounds per game than their opponents. Whereas the Nittany Lions average 5.6 fewer rebounds per game than their foes. Per Ken Pom, Illinois is 20th out of 362 schools in offensive rebounding rate and Penn State is 325th in defensive rebounding rate. Hence, the Fighting Illini should get a bunch of easy put-backs.
Finally, the 3-pointer is the great equalizer in basketball but Illinois defends the three well. The Fighting Illini rank 71st in defensive 3-point percentage and 6th in defensive 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) allowed. "3PAr" is the true mark of a "good 3-point defense" because most Power 5 teams will hit threes if you allow them to fire away.
Illinois -7.5 (-105) at FanDuel is the best price in the market as of 11:20 a.m. ET
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No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats at LSU Tigers (+6.5), 9 p.m. ET
I'm going to roll with the college basketball nerds on this one and take the points with LSU. Ken Pom, Bart Torvik, and Erik Haslam all have the Wildcats winning by four points or fewer. Since Kentucky is one of the most popular basketball programs in the country, we can expect the public to bet on the Wildcats.
Furthermore, the Tigers are pricier at Pinnacle Sportsbook, which matters because Pinnacle is a "market-making" sportsbook that the legal U.S. shops copy. By making Kentucky cheaper, Pinnacle is trying to steer its "whale" clientele toward the Wildcats. Caesars Sportsbook got ahead of the market by lowering LSU's spread to +6.
LSU Tigers C Will Baker looks to pass the ball vs. the Tennessee Volunteers in Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. (Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports)
(Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports)
Lastly, the Tigers have more experience and are one of the few teams with enough size to match up with Kentucky. LSU senior C Will Baker is a legit 7-footer and senior PF Derek Fountain stands 6-foot-10. The Tigers have four upperclassmen in their starting 5 and the Wildcats have all freshmen and sophomores in their starting 5. I don't like Kentucky's youth going on the road and covering as favorites in a conference game.
The best price for LSU +6.5 (-110) is at BetMGM as of 11:45 a.m. ET.
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