Purdue Will Take Down Michigan Even On The Road

Purdue vs. Michigan, 7:00 ET

I went just 1-1 on the college floor last night. Basketball can be a game of runs and a lot of luck in certain scenarios. Garbage time allows players to pad stats, the three-point shot fluctuation can help keep almost any team in a game, and scheduling plays a major factor in handicapping games. It seems to be worse in the professional ranks than college, but those are all factors you need to try and account for when evaluating any basketball game. Tonight we look to dodge any major issue as Purdue takes on Michigan.

It is never easy to lose your best player to the NBA draft, but that was the reality facing the Boilermakers as they came into this season. Purdue has weathered that storm and performed admirably against the competition. Purdue is currently 19-5 with an 11-2 conference record and is ranked as the seventh-best team in the league. For the most part, their struggles have come against ranked teams. They dropped a game to Marquette by almost 20 points, but it was on the road. They lost to Penn State on the road to open the Big 10 play. Their next two losses came in back-to-back games as Texas A&M and Auburn took down Purdue, but both games were on a neutral court. Since then the team has gone 11-1 with their lone loss coming against Ohio State. In that one, they fell 73-70, and it was on their home court. They did win the next four games though. Tonight marks the start of three straight games against ranked opponents, with two of them coming on the road. The team is led by three main scorers, forward Trey Kaufman-Renn, and guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. The trio are averaging almost 50 points per game.

Feb 8, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Dusty May reacts to a call during the second half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Michigan is one of those teams that is going to put up a fight in just about any game of the season. The Wolverines are not a team that I expect to make a full push for the National Championship, but they are likely to be a tough out for anyone they face in the tournament. They are 18-5 for the season and currently ranked 20th in the nation. Michigan is also second in the Big 10 with a 10-2 conference record. A loss here would probably eliminate them from any chance to win the regular season Big 10 title. Over the season, their losses came against Wake Forest, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Purdue. For the most part the losses haven't been blowouts. The first four losses were by a combined total of eight points. Their loss against Purdue was pretty ugly though as they dropped that game by almost 30 and had no answers on defense. It was a road game, and they were coming off of back-to-back overtime games, so not exactly a really good situation for them. They have since won four straight though. 

I am not sure that I want to take a stance on the total in this game. Both teams can be tough defensively, and I'd expect Michigan to make some adjustments in this one to prevent Purdue from putting up another 91 points. I probably lean toward the over, but I'm not overly confident in the teams each getting somewhere around 75 points. Instead, I think Purdue will win this game. I think they are the better team. It can be scary to take a road team in college sports, especially against one that was blown out last time they faced each other, so I wouldn't blame you if you don't want to follow. I'm going to take Purdue +105. 

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