Public Dogs Get Slaughtered: Bet Ravens Over Bengals In Week 11
Week 11 kicks off with the best Thursday Night Football game of the year. The Baltimore Ravens (7-3) host the Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) for their 2nd meeting this season. Baltimore upset Cincinnati 27-24 as +3 underdogs in Week 2.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow drops back to pass vs. Baltimore at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Every AFC North team has a winning record through the 1st 10 weeks so Bengals-Ravens Thursday is essentially a playoff game. Honestly, I've flip flopped between liking the Ravens and Bengals all week. Ultimately, I'm landing on Baltimore for various reasons.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens Week 11 odds
First, more action is on Cincy. There's a saying in sports betting that goes public dogs get slaughtered. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF) and Pregame.com, roughly two-thirds of the bets are on the Bengals as of early Thursday afternoon.
The Ravens opened as -3 favorites at some shops and went up to the key number of "-3.5" despite all the pro-Bengals money. Whether it be the sportsbooks wanting more Cincinnati action or professional bettors keep taking Baltimore before the number gets to -3, the Ravens are the sharp side.
Usually, the sportsbooks are rooting for underdogs because the public likes to back favorites. It's rare for oddsmakers to need the better team to win. This leads me to my next point, which is Baltimore is clearly the better team.
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The Ravens are 3rd in net expected points added per play. Cincinnati is 18th. Baltimore is 2nd in net yards per play (YPP). The Bengals are 30th! The Ravens are 3rd in early-down success rate. Cincy is 22nd. These stats power the sportsbooks' spreads.
Lamar Jackson looks to pass while being pressured by Cincinnati Bengals LB Logan Wilson at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. (Todd Olszewski/Getty Images)
Based on just the metrics above, Baltimore should be -6 to -7 favorites Thursday. But, when you factor in the situation, I understand the Ravens being maybe -4.5. But, -3.5? That's just too good of a number to pass up.
Also, bettors are putting too much stock into Baltimore's injuries. It will be without LT Ronnie Staley and No. 1 CB Marlon Humphrey is "doubtful" for Week 11. However, both missed the Bengals-Ravens 1st meeting earlier this season.
Furthermore, when you look under the hood of that Week 2 game, Baltimore should've beaten Cincy by more than 3 points. According to PFF's Timo Riske, the "noise-canceled score" of Bengals-Ravens in Week 2 was Baltimore 29, Cincinnati 20.
The Ravens possessed the ball for seven minutes longer, out-gained the Bengals 5.9-4.9 in YPP, and gave up a flukey 81-yard punt return TD to Cincy WR Charlie Jones. Granted, "s*** could happen" again Thursday. If it doesn't, Baltimore just has more ways to win.
Lastly, Baltimore is 2-2 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread vs. Cincinnati since last year, which includes the 2022 playoffs. The Ravens had backup QB Tyler Huntley instead of Lamar Jackson in two of those games. They out-gained the Bengals in total yards in their last four meetings.