PrizePicks For Bills Vs. Patriots: TNF, Week 13

PublishedNovember 30, 2022 7:47 PM EST|UpdatedNovember 30, 2022 7:47 PM EST

One of the most fun and lucrative ways to get action on an NFL card is by playing daily fantasy sports (DFS) with our friends, PrizePicks. Let's spice up this Week 13 Thursday Night Football game featuring the Buffalo Bills at the New England Patriots.

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PrizePicks Play #1: Patriots QB Mac Jones "less" than 220.5 passing yards

Jones passed for a career-high 382 yards vs. the Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving so my first instinct is to fade him. Especially against this Buffalo defense, which is getting healthier.

Bills All-Pro CB Tre'Davious White is making his second start of the season this Thursday. Buffalo edge rushers Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa and LB Tremaine Edmunds were all full participants in practice Tuesday.

Buffalo Bills DBs Tre'Davious White and Jordan Poyer do a handshake at New Era Field in Orchard Park, New York. (Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)

Edmunds is one of the best linebackers in pass coverage and is Pro Football Focus's (PFF) fourth-highest-graded linebacker out of 83. Thursday will be the first time in 2022 the Bills will have S Jordan Poyer, White, and Edmunds all available.

More importantly, Jones is averaging just 205.8 passing yards in his nine games vs. AFC East teams, 199.2 passing yards in primetime games, and 82.0 passing yards per game in two regular-season meetings with the Bills -- although that's skewed a bit by the "wind game" where Jones only attempted three passes in a Pats' victory.

Play #2: Bills RB Devin Singletary "more" than 13.0 rushing attempts

I think Buffalo rolls New England on TNF so the Bills should have the game in hand by the fourth quarter. If that's the case then it would make sense for Singletary to get some carries in garbage time.

Singletary had 16 carries for 81 yards with two TDs in Buffalo's 47-17 beatdown of New England in last year's AFC wild-card playoff round.

Buffalo Bills RB Devin Singletary rushes during the 4th quarter of the game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Omar Rawlings/Getty Images)

Furthermore, the strength of New England's defense is its pass coverage. The Patriots rank first in both dropback expected points added per play and dropback success rate. Singletary has at least 13 rushing attempts in three of his six career games vs. the Patriots including the playoffs.

Finally, Singletary has more than 13 rushing attempts in five of his past eight games with one of those games landing on exacting 13 carries. Some of this is due to Bills QB Josh Allen's lingering elbow issue.

Play #3: Bills WR Isaiah McKenzie "more" than 28.5 receiving yards

McKenzie had career highs in both receptions (11) and receiving yards (125) in the second Bills-Patriots regular-season meeting in 2021. In the playoffs vs. New England, McKenzie squeaked over this total with 29 receiving yards.

That extra half-yard might come in handy because the legal U.S. sportsbooks list McKenzie's receiving prop anywhere from 29.5-30.5 yards.

Buffalo Bills WR Isaiah McKenzie makes the catch during the 4th quarter of the game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Omar Rawlings/Getty Images)

Also, McKenzie has the second-best WR-CB coverage matchup for the Bills Thursday behind No. 1 WR Stefon Diggs, according to PFF. Buffalo No. 2 WR Gabriel Davis has an "average" WR-CB matchup, per PFF.

McKenzie's matchup -- Patriots' slot CB Myles Bryant -- has a below-average PFF pass coverage grade. New England's best-graded CB, Jonathan Jones, will most likely be tasked with defending Diggs.

Lastly, we might need only one catch from McKenzie to go over this number. McKenzie is averaging 31.5 yards per reception and Buffalo tends to design "shot plays" for him.