Primetime And Divisional Battle? Back The Under

Buccaneers vs. Falcons, 8:15 ET

The NFL returns for us here in Week 5 which is wild to write about. I already want the season to slow down because at the end of this week we are almost a third of the way done with this season. So far, I feel like we know everything we need to know about teams, and we know nothing about any team. We had another solid week with our betting slips, but that doesn't mean we are ready to sit back and relax. I want to keep this going and grab another win as Week 5 takes shape here with the Buccaneers against the Falcons. 

The only blemish on the Tampa Bay record right now is a loss to the Broncos - a team that somehow has won two games in a row. The Buccaneers, led by Baker Mayfield, are playing good football outside of that game. Mayfield is 91-for-129 with 984, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. He has a great connection with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Their running game hasn't been great, but is good enough as a change of pace an allows at least a bit of guessing for the defense to figure out what Tampa is trying to do. Defensively, the Buccaneers are still a good team, but not quite as dominant as they were a few years back in their Super Bowl appearance. They are in the middle of the pack and Atlanta has a somewhat average passing game as well. They haven't been great against the run, but I've watched the past year and a half of games from the Falcons and they offer very little space for their running backs. The running game should be good enough against a running defense of Atlanta that the Buccaneers can gain some traction. They can't, and won't, abandon the passing game, but there is some importance of making sure they attack their opportunities against the Falcon defense. 

Before this season, Atlanta was getting a lot of flowers and excitement as the pick to win their division. It is too soon to say they will do that or cannot do it, but at 2-2, I'm not overly impressed with their team. Sure, Kirk Cousins is an upgrade over their passing from last season, but he hasn't been a revolution or anything. Cousins is just 77-for-119 for 864 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions. I'm sure it will take a bit of time to get him fully in sync with his receivers. The problem, to me, still remains that they have very little productivity from the ground game. On the surface, Robinson has 55 carries for 224 yards and a touchdown. Four yards per carry isn't terrible, but the number of times that he has nowhere to run is alarming when you actually watch the game. He is involved in the passing attack and when he does get space, he seems to turn them into successful runs. There are plenty of weapons on this team, but the Falcons have to figure out how to use them. 

The win over Washington looks more impressive for the Buccaneers than it did originally. The losses to the Steelers and Chiefs are reasonable ones from the Falcons. This game is really hard to pick a straight winner. I think since they are in Atlanta this could be a win for the Falcons, but I'm not putting my money on it. Instead, despite how good the Buccaneers look on offense in many games, I think this divisional battle is better to play as an under. Back under 43.5. 

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