Portland Trail Blazers Can Hang Tight With A Banged-Up Boston Celtics On Wednesday

Against all odds, the Portland Trail Blazers (28-34) are NOT tanking and are in playoff contention with 20 games left. They visit the Boston Celtics (43-18) at TD Garden on Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET. Boston beat the Denver Nuggets 110-103 at home Sunday in its last game, covering as -5.5 favorites. Portland crushed the pathetic Philadelphia 76ers 119-102 Monday. 

Since this is the first of a back-to-back for the Celtics, who host the Sixers on Thursday, Boston will give a couple of its starters the night off. This is the fifth of Portland's six-game road trip. Its only loss over that span was to the first-place Cleveland Cavaliers 133-129, and the Blazers held a 10-point lead entering the fourth quarter. 

Portland is missing starting C Deandre Ayton with a calf strain and PF Jerami Grant is questionable with a knee injury. But, Ayton has a -6.3 on/off net rating and Grant has a -4.6 on/off net rating, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). So, those absences could be "addition by subtraction". 

Portland Trail Blazers at Boston Celtics Odds (Caesars Sportsbook) 

• Moneyline: Portland (+360) | Boston (-481)
• Spread: TRAIL BLAZERS +10 (-110) | Boston -10 (-110)
• Total — 225 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

The Trail Blazers were left for dead, but head coach Chauncey Billups has them playing hard. They are 4.0 games behind the 10-seed Dallas Mavericks (the final playoff play-in spot), who are pretty much "dead-man walking". Since the NBA All-Star Game, Portland is 5-2 straight up and against the spread (ATS), fourth in net rating, and first in ATS margin, per CTG. 

The Blazers are playing well because they are getting better looks than their opponents. They lead the NBA in shot quality and rate of field goals at the rim since the All-Star break, according to CTG. Portland is sixth in offensive and defensive "wide-open" 3-point-attempt rate over that span too. 

Nowadays, 3-balls are the most important thing in basketball, and more than half of Boston's shots are from deep. The best way to stop 3-pointers is to prevent them in the first place because everyone can hit them. The Blazers are third in 3-point attempts allowed per game. If they close out on 3-pointers, it'll be hard for the Celtics to score with all their injuries. 

Finally, the market is betting Portland in this game. The Trail Blazers opened up as +10.5 underdogs, and they are down to +10 at most sportsbooks. This is sharp line movement because, despite Boston being banged up and Portland surging, the public will back the defending champion Celtics on Wednesday.

Prediction: Boston 115, Portland 110 

• Not to be a broken record, but shop around for the best available price. I found a "Trail Blazers +10 (-110)" at Caesars Sportsbook, and I'm willing to play them down to +9.

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