Is This The Point That The Aces Will Turn It On?

Lynx vs. Aces, 9:30 ET

You may not believe it, but I did lose my last WNBA bet. It happens, of course, but I'm at like 80% with Outkick WNBA bets so it has been few and far between for the losses which is exactly what we want. Unfortunately, one of the hardest teams for me to bet on or against is the Aces, and they are in this one once again. They've been rather inconsistent for a team with one of the best rosters the WNBA has ever scene. Should we bet on them, or against them tonight as they take on one of the better teams this season, the Minnesota Lynx?

The Lynx are having a surprisingly great campaign with a 19-8 record this year. However, most of their success has come in the comfort of their home arena. Right now they are just 7-5 on the road, which puts them at 12-3 at home. It also means they will have fewer home games in the second half of the season. They came back to action after the Olympics and had the advantage of warm up games against the Mystics who are one of the worst teams in the league. The Lynx were able to beat the Mystics in back-to-back home-road games. Now they travel from Minnesota to Washington DC, and now to Las Vegas for this game, which doesn't bode well for the travel schedule (even with three days between the games). Last year the team ended up 19-21 so they already have matched last year's win total, so what has been different this season? Mostly, I think the addition of Courtney Williams as a consistent point guard for the team, and Alanna Smith being a great contributor both offensively and defensively, have been key additions for the team. It also helps that Napheesa Collier is having one of the best seasons of her career, averaging 20.3 points and 10 rebounds for the year. 

May 28, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Aces forward Aja Wilson (22) competes during the first quarter against the Minnesota Lynx at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports

The Aces are not having the dream season they did the past two years. Are there distractions? Is the team falling apart? Are they just tired from the past two championship runs? I'm not really sure that we can pinpoint anything specific as to why they aren't playing as well this season, but my guess is a combination of everything. Las Vegas was probably distracted by the Olympics, they could also partially be distracted by the accusations of workplace issues. The team didn't have Chelsea Gray for about half of the season. So, that leaves with them just being tired from the past two seasons. Maybe they also just don't care as much about the regular season right now. The problem is that I'm watching the games and the team just looks sloppy. They aren't really averaging more turnovers or anything, but the offense doesn't look like it has a rhythm. Their shooting percentages are slightly down from last season, but it isn't a drastic drop-off. The team is just 1-1 since the Olympic break, but their loss was to their (likely) biggest threat to a 3-peat. Maybe it will all be figured out - they have A'ja Wilson, the MVP for this season. Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young are both Olympians as well and both great. 

Unfortunately for the Aces, there are more questions than answers right now. With the Lynx, they probably would've preferred to not have an Olympic break this season because they were playing so well. The Aces are still the better team, but they haven't looked like the best team in every game. The Lynx were the Commissioner's Cup winner this season and beat the Liberty in that game. The Aces beat the Lynx in the first matchup of the season, and the second game saw the Lynx take down the Aces. Both winners were the road teams. In this one I think the trend changes. I expect the Aces to win this game and the spread is a little short here. I'm going to take the Aces -3.5 in this one. Most of it is that I think the Aces at some point need to turn it on against these better teams, and this is a great opportunity, especially after losing against the Liberty earlier. I'll back the Aces again, and if I lose, I probably won't play them again this regular season.

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