Plug Your Nose: BET Nebraska ATS At Home Vs. Oklahoma
Some how, some way the Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-2) will cover the spread Saturday vs. the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (2-0) at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska.
Oklahoma-Nebraska is FOX's Big Noon Kickoff game of the week and will get a lot of betting action since this week's college football slate is fairly weak.
Everyone is laying it with Oklahoma -11 (-110) on the road leading the way for a perfect contrarian spot. However, the sportsbooks are clearly laying a trap.
DraftKings Sportsbook's Oklahoma-Nebraska betting splits as of Thursday at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Circa Sports in Las Vegas opened Oklahoma-Nebraska with the Sooners favored by 16 points. Yet the line has fallen despite everyone backing Oklahoma. Hmmmm ... Weird, right?
We want to be on the same side as the House since most people are losing sports bettors. Well, the House will be rooting for Nebraska +11 (-110) Saturday. No chance I'd recommend following 80+% of the sheep into the slaughter.
Furthermore, a sharp off-shore sportsbook named "Pinnacle" is listing Oklahoma at -10. Pinnacle is considered sharp because it books the biggest sports bets in the world.
Obviously, "14" is a key number in football betting and we're getting the worst of it. But, I'd play BET the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS -11 (-110) down to -10 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Below, I'll reverse engineer the Oklahoma side to further support my Nebraska wager.
Former Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Scott Frost. (Steven Branscombe/Getty Images)
Nebraska's 'Fired Coach' Angle
Former head coach Scott Frost was put out of his misery after Nebraska lost last week to the Sun Belt's Georgia Southern Eagles 45-42 at home. And while most of the sports betting space factors Nebraska firing its coach as a negative, I look at it as a positive.
This bad boy is a Geoff Clark original but I have a theory that football coach firings have a more immediate impact than any other sport.
In both professional and college football, most of the players rostered are there because a coach vouches for them. When a football coach gets fired, his players instinctually think: "Am I next?".
We see terrible football teams cover big numbers the week after firing their coach all the time. But, the Cornhuskers aren't "terrible", they are disappointing. There are a couple of other factors for BETTING NEBRASKA PLUS THE POINTS.
Random Oklahoma-Nebraska Angles
Cornhuskers QB Casey Thompson is Pro Football Focus's seventh-highest graded quarterback, 42 spots ahead of Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel. In fact, Nebraska's offense hasn't been the problem.
Nebraska ranks 19th in non-garbage time offensive expected points added and 29th in offensive success rate. At the moment, Oklahoma ranks 41st in adjusted defensive efficiency, per Football Outsiders. Hence, Thompson and Co. can have success vs. Oklahoma's mediocre defense.
Also, Oklahoma couldn't cover as 22.5-point favorites in last year's meeting with Nebraska. So Oklahoma -11 (-110) this year looks cheap considering Nebraska's current turmoil. That's all the more reason to take the Cornhuskers here.
On top of that, Oklahoma hasn't beaten anyone good. But, people are betting as if the Sooners are some national powerhouse. Oklahoma first-year head coach Brett Venables is still unproven and Nebraska interim head coach Mickey Joseph is playing with house money.
BET the NEBRASKA +11 (-110) and I'd play the Cornhuskers all the way down to +10.
Don't @ Me: CFB Week 3 & NFL Week 2 Bets With Geoff Clark
Nebraska +12.5 vs Oklahoma
Saints +2.5 vs Brady and the Bucs
Eagles -2 vs Vikings
Texas A&M -6 vs Miami