Plug-Your-Nose Bet: Heat ATS Over Nuggets In NBA Finals Game 4

The Denver Nuggets (2-1) have a chance to take a stranglehold of the 2023 NBA Finals in Game 4. They meet the Miami Heat (1-2) at Kaseya Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off in South Beach on Friday.

Denver pummeled Miami 109-94 in Game 3 Wednesday. Nuggets big Nikola Jokic and PG Jamal Murray became the 1st pair of teammates to put up triple doubles in the NBA Finals.

Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic high-fives PG Jamal Murray vs. the Heat during Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals at Kaseya Center in Miami. (Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)

Aside from Jokic and Murray ballin' out, Denver won Game 3 handily because it crushed Miami on the interior and on the glass.

The Nuggets out-scored the Heat 60-34 in the paint and out-rebounded them 58-33 Wednesday. Miami was ice-cold from behind the arc in Game 3 and missed a ton of makable shots inside.

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Miami went 8-for-23 at the rim and 11-for-25 in the short-mid-range. The Heat shot just 31.4% from 3-point land (11-for-35).

Nuggets at Heat odds for NBA Finals Game 4

Betting odds for the Nuggets at the Heat Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals from DraftKings.

Miami certainly looks out-matched. Yet the same was said about the Heat entering their playoff series vs. the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics.

More importantly, the sportsbooks didn't overreact to Denver's beatdown of Miami in Game 3. The Heat closed as +3.5 underdogs Wednesday, opened at +3 for Game 4 and are currently +3.5.

However, the public thinks they are getting a cheap number with the Nuggets. According to VSIN, more than 70% of the action at DraftKings is on Denver's spread as of 3:30 p.m. ET Friday evening.

Heat SF Jimmy Butler drives to the cup on Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic in Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals at Kaseya Center. (Wilfredo Lee - Pool/Getty Images)

Fading the public is the most tried and true handicapping angle for betting team sports. Especially when it comes to playoff games in the NBA and MLB or any NFL tilt.

Miami's path to covering and/or winning Game 4 is making their easy looks, which is doable. The Heat are averaging 4.4 more "wide-open" 3s per game (13.7-9.3) than the Nuggets in the NBA Finals.

NBA FINALS NUGGETS AT HEAT GAME 4 PROPS: JAMAL MURRAY, BAM ADEBAYO, KCP

Furthermore, Miami are 6-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) following its eight losses this postseason. The Heat have a +8.0 SU margin and +9.6 ATS margin in those games.

That said, I'm a lot more confident in my Game 4 player props than Miami plus the points. Instead of my usual full-unit wager in Nuggets-Heat Wednesday, I'd only put a half-unit on Game 4. For example, one unit = $100.

BET: Miami +3.5 (-115) in Game 4 at DraftKings

Gambling strategy: Wait until closer to tip-off before betting on Game 4 since money is pouring in on Denver's spread.

The Miami Heat's Game 4 spread vs. the Denver Nuggets in Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals from DraftKings.