'Plug-Your-Nose' Bet: Giants To Upset Dodgers In Series Finale Wednesday

Look, I'm not crazy about making this bet. I feel like I lost a lot of money last season unsuccessfully fading the Los Angeles Dodgers (6-2) and they are even better this year. However, the San Francisco Giants (2-4) have a +195 moneyline on DraftKings at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday and, like a sucker, I'm going to bet it. 

The Dodgers are heavy favorites to win another NL West and Pennant. Plus, they won the first two games of this series 8-3 Monday and 5-4 Tuesday. But, Los Angeles is -238 favorites over San Francisco at DraftKings, which has a 70.1% implied win probability. After digging into the numbers, the Giants can win this game at least 35% of the time. 

For instance, I researched how the Dodgers do in similar spots. The inputs were "Los Angeles as home favorites of -200 or greater against teams above-.500 with left-handed starters on the mound since 2022". The Dodgers are 3-4 straight up with a -39.8% return on investment and -6.42 units (u) in those contests. 

Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani bats against the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

LAD first-year ace, RHP Tyler Glasnow, faces San Francisco's No. 1 prospect, rookie LHP Kyle Harrison. Glasnow is 1-0 with 3 ER over 11.0 innings pitched (IP) in two starts vs. the San Diego Padres (no-decision) March 20 and the St. Louis Cardinals (win) Thursday. Harrison beat the Padres 8-3 Friday with 2 ER over 6 IP in his first start this year. 

READ: Brad Paisley Apparently Helped The Dodgers Build A Superteam

Also, Harrison got two no-decisions vs. the Dodgers last year in what ended up being losses for the Giants. But, he only gave up 2 ERs in 10.1 IP in those outings. The lefty struck out five batters with zero walks with home runs by Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. the Padres. There are worse guys to give up home runs. 

Furthermore, Harrison's numbers in his first eight big league starts dating back to last season are on par with Glasnow's. To make this easier, Baseball-Reference posts pitchers' previous seven starts. Harrison and Glasnow each have 37.1 IP over that span. But, Harrison has a 3.86 ERA and a 35/10 K/BB rate while Glasnow has a 4.34 ERA with a 50/15 K/BB rate. 

That said, the Dodgers have the most loaded lineup in baseball. Yet, Los Angeles has an off-day Thursday, already won this series, and has a taxed bullpen. The Dodgers used RHP Ryan Brasier as an "opener" Wednesday with four other relievers. If Glasnow doesn't give Los Angeles a strong 5+ IP, the Giants can steal this game in the middle to late innings. 

BET 1u on San Francisco's moneyline (+185) at FanDuel. The Giants are playable down to +170. 

• As of April 2nd, my MLB 2024 betting record is 3-3 while adding +0.5u to my bankroll.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.