Playoff Probables Preview Highlights Thursday Afternoon

Mariners vs. Guardians, 1:10 ET

If all things go well, there is a very real possibility that this could be a playoff matchup just a few months from now. There is still a lot of baseball to play - almost half of a season remains - but we can see that there are some teams that are clearly better than others. In this case, we have two teams that are actually above the .500 mark, which isn't super rare considering there are 11 teams with a record above .500 right now. However, there are also a ton that are hovering around the .500 mark overall. We should get a pretty good baseball game today between the Mariners and Guardians, but my hope is that we also get a win and add some money to our bankroll. 

Seattle has been one of the more interesting teams this season. They have a terrible offense but have one of the better pitching staffs in baseball. It is interesting that they are leading the division, one that has the reigning World Series Champions, and the Houston Astros, a perennial contender for the trophy as well. The Mariners are good overall, but they have struggled on the road this season and currently have a sub-.500 record. There are a lot of things that make me question how long this team will be able to survive this season. For the year, the Mariners are hitting just .222 which is 28th in the Majors. They also strikeout more than any other team in baseball. So how are they leading the division? As I mentioned, their pitching staff has been great. They are fifth in the Majors with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Consider that Gerrit Cole last season had a 0.98 WHIP, and this team is at just 1.06 as a whole, that is very impressive. Today they get one of the better pitchers on the team to take the ball as Luis Castillo takes the ball. Castillo has a 3.32 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He also is 15th in the league with 92 strikeouts. For the season, Castillo has 10 quality starts in 15 outings. He has been worse on the road than at home, but it isn't drastically different. Guardians hitters have been good against him though as they have gotten 25 hits in 82 at-bats against Castillo. 

Guardians Jose Ramirez watches a 2-run homer during the 8th inning at Progressive Field in Cleveland. (Jason Miller/Getty Images).

The Guardians have been able to take home-field advantage to great heights this season as they are 21-9 on the season in Cleveland. They are still above .500 on the road, but not nearly as good as at home. The team has been fairly surprising as well in terms of their offense. For the season, they are hitting .243 and have scored 346 runs for the year. They were in the top-5 for a while, but have dropped down to top-10 in runs scored, so still good, but not quite as dominant. What is most encouraging to me about the Guardians is that they don't overly rely on home runs in order to score their runs. They only have 76 homers for the year, which is still good for 14th. That's encouraging because they don't need them to score, but can still get them. Their pitching has carried them for years, and they are still putting a good team out there with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Logan Allen starts today, and his ERA is a bit ugly at 5.30, but that is mostly due to two starts where he allowed 14 earned runs over four innings against the Rockies and Tigers in two starts. That leaves him with 27 earned runs allowed over his other 65.2 innings. He has been worse at home this year (only the Tigers start happened at home). Mariners hitters are just 4-for-20 against him over their careers with no extra-base hits. 

I don't have much face in Logan Allen in today's contest. I do have a tendency to overvalue Luis Castillo, but he is a bit more reliable than Allen. Sure, Cleveland doesn't lose much at home, but it isn't like they are undefeated there either. Allen could turn in a great start, but I think Castillo is more likely to do that. However, the history of the success against Castillo makes me shy away from taking the Mariners. Instead, I think we should take the over through five innings as I expect both teams to get to the opposing starter. 

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