Playoff Hopefuls Battle In San Diego

Mets vs. Padres, 9:40 ET

I wrote yesterday about how there will be a lot of games coming up between teams that don't have a shot at the playoffs and those that do. If you read the Athletic or pay attention to FanGraphs, you might've seen that there was a story today about how few teams have a realistic shot at the playoffs. To me, the majority of these are all just random percentages. You're saying because the Rays have a 4% chance at the playoffs today, they can't make it with roughly 30 games to go? What if they go 20-10 over the last month and the Red Sox and Royals go 12-18 each? While the numbers do seemingly make sense, the games still need to be played and there is excitement we should feel about these games. Tonight we get a game between two teams that are both still in the playoff hunt and have strong numbers to make the playoffs as the Mets take on the Padres.

To start, I should mention that the Mets have a 75% chance to make the playoffs right now. It won't be by winning their division. Instead, in order to find themselves in the playoffs they likely need some bad play from the Padres and Diamondbacks, or yet another injury to the already depleted Braves team. Perhaps that is the best thing the Mets have going for them is the fact that they do have a team that has played well enough to get them back into contention, and their divisional foes have been hobbled by injury. If the season ended today, they would not make the playoffs. The Braves are up 1.5 games on the Mets for the final Wild Card spot. This isn't a huge gap, obviously, but they still need to be locked in to make sure they don't fall further behind. The two teams still play three games the final week of the season, so there is a realistic possibility that series will determine the Wild Card winner (unless some other NL team gets hot). The Mets have played fine post-All-Star Break, but nothing overly special at just 18-15. Tonight they send out Paul Blackburn, the former Athletics starter to try and slow down the Padres team. Blackburn has made four starts for the Mets with three of them being great, and one rather ugly one against his former team. In the three good starts, he posted three quality starts, allowing just one run in each game. The game against the Athletics, he allowed six earned runs in just four innings. For the most part, Blackburn is a fairly average pitcher. He is going to give you five or six innings and a wide range of possibilities for how many runs he will allow. Blackburn has allowed seven hits to Padres hitters in 21 at-bats over his career. 

Aug 18, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Paul Blackburn (58) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

In case you were curious about the Padres chances of making the playoffs, it is above 95%. I was just explaining about how a team can have a great stretch and catapult themselves. Since the All-Star Break, the Padres have played 30 games, going 22-8 which is remarkable. They've lost back-to-back games for the first time since they returned to action. I bring this up because they still have 33 games to play, which is around the same total that others have. At the All-Star Game, the Padres had a 38.9% chance to make the playoffs. Because of this hot stretch, they are now at 95.1%. This is part of the reason that I don't put a ton of stock into the numbers because you never know which team can make a run. The Padres have to be a team to fear if they continue to ride this hot streak through the playoffs as they have the pitching and offense to hoist the World Series trophy. One of their better pitchers will go for them today as Joe Musgrove is scheduled to start. Musgrove has battled his way back from injury this year and has made just two starts since coming back after missing all of June and July. He has only gone 8.2 innings total in the two starts, as the Padres are being cautious with him (clearly with eyes on a bigger prize) but he has allowed just one earned run on five hits. Mets hitters have seen Musgrove quite a bit and haven't had too much luck against him. Jose Iglesias is a guy you might want to consider for over his total bases today, but collectively, the Mets have hit just .215 against Musgrove.

I like the Padres in this one, but not knowing if Musgrove is going to pitch more than maybe five innings is hard to justify taking them for the full game. Blackburn has been good since coming over to the Mets, perhaps invigorated by playing for a team with games that mean something. That does make me lean toward taking the under. The Mets bats broke out a bit last night, but I'm not sure that happens again here. I'll back the first five innings to go under 4.5 runs. I do think the Padres win the game as well, but it isn't worth it to me at the current price. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024