Player Prop As Brewers Take On White Sox

Brewers vs. White Sox, 7:40 ET

Well, after a good week, this hasn't been the most impressive start to a new week on the diamond. There are a lot of reasons to hope I can turn it around, but this actually might be the worst stretch of baseball betting I've had in my three-plus years of writing for Outkick. I say that not because I'm losing hope or anything, but because I feel like you deserve the truth of how I'm doing if you plan to fade or follow. I'm picking a game here between the Brewers and the White Sox. 

Last season, I picked the Brewers to win the NL Central and basically since the beginning of the season, they led the way and coasted to a division title. I tried to run it back this season, and there is still time for that, but right now, the Cubs look like the most primed for that distinction. To this point in the year, the Brewers are 14-15 for the season, but they are just 5-11 on the road. I mentioned yesterday that there are a ridiculous amount of teams that have losing records on the road this year. The Brewers aren't the worst road team in baseball, but they do have a very low amount of wins. Looking at the statistics for the Brewers, it seems like they just can't close out games. I don't know that they need to as they have Freddy Peralta taking the hill today. Peralta has kind of become the de facto ace for the Brewers. On most staffs, he probably would be a #2 or #3 starter, but his numbers this season are ace-worthy. He is 2-2 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He doesn't go deep into games, typically, having thrown five innings in five of six games. The White Sox are hitting just .217 against Peralta in limited exposure.

 (Credit: Getty Images)

If we want to talk about last year, I also should come clean about something. Last year, I took the over for the win total for Chicago. The White Sox were one of the worst teams in baseball history. In fairness to me, I did take that bet before I thought they would trade anyone of value on their roster. This season, the White Sox are just 7-21, but the Rockies are actually worse than them, so they don't have the distinction of being the worst team in baseball at the moment. The season is young, though. Tonight, they are doing a bit of a bullpen game as they send out Bryse Wilson to start the season. Wilson has a 4.30 ERA in 14.2 innings. He also carries a 1.84 WHIP into the game. He won't be in the game for a long time, but could be chased rather early with just eight hits in 23 at-bats. The White Sox bullpen has a 4.28 ERA overall. 

It would be unlikely for the White Sox to win this game, I also think that the Brewers will take it by more than the run line. I could see them winning by three or more runs, but I'm not taking an alternate run line. In fact, I'm only going to play a player prop. I've actually done pretty well on those this season where I've struggled with the totals and moneylines. I'll take Peralta to record a win at -105 in this one. I also really like the Brewers team total over 4.5 if you prefer to play that way.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024