Play The Total For Game Between Underperforming Pac-12 Teams

Arizona State vs. USC, 11:00 ET

Thursday offers a lot of college basketball action, but very few of the top teams in the sport play today with Saturday being the day where most of the teams play. Still, there are some good games today and ones that I think we can take advantage of. There are a few ranked teams going tonight, but I've decided to focus on something else, a matchup between two teams that actually come into this game with a sub-.500 record. I'm going to put a play on the game between Arizona State and USC tonight. 

Arizona State wasn't a school that most people had on their radar for the season, but they have put together a few nice wins this season. For instance, they just beat Washington State by 12 two games ago. However, that's one of the few bright spots they've had over the past 11 games. They are just 3-8 over those games. Looking even a bit further, they are just 4-10. When they do win, they usually win by double digits. When they lose, the games also aren't very close. They've only had one overtime game in the Pac-12 this season. By my count, they only have had six games in the conference where the game was decided by nine points or fewer. That means that when they lose, they get killed, and when they win, the games are fairly convincing. The team has four guys who do the majority of the scoring and then a few role players who try to contribute as much as they can, but the team is not very balanced. Their four leading scorers are all guards which makes it difficult to deal with opponent's forwards and centers.  

On USC's side, the expectations were extremely high and this was a team that people thought would get a ton of attention. They haven't lived up to the hype, nor have many of their star players that people expected to carry them. This isn't exactly shocking that the team is struggling. It can be hard to adjust to the college game, and it can be hard to come together as a team. Bronny James dealt with a very serious health incident around the start of camp, so I'm a bit confused why people think he is underperforming. The fact that he is out there is impressive. Nonetheless, the team is just 12-17 on the year and likely will make the NIT if anything. They've alternated wins over the past five games, and all of the games have been close contests. The combined margin of victory in the three games is 17, which might sound better than it really is. The losses have only been by a combined six points, and one of those two losses came in double overtime. It is nice to see them playing a bit more up to their potential. Like Arizona State, this team is very guard heavy, with three guards combining to put in 43.8 points per game for the Trojans. They do have some solid forwards that are on the roster and should help control the glass in this game. 

I don't expect Arizona State to win this game, and I'm not quite sure how competitive it will be. As mentioned, when they lose, it is typically pretty bad. USC though hasn't been dominating opponents. In this case, I think our best play is to take the over for the game. I would expect both backcourts to get going and find ways to rack up points. I'll play over 146.5.