Baltimore Ravens' Spread Is Too High, Bet Pittsburgh Steelers In NFL Wild Card Round
Let me preface this handicap by saying the 6-seed Pittsburgh Steelers could be cooked. They backed into the playoffs, losing four straight games, which allowed the 3-seed Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North. As a result, Baltimore hosts Pittsburgh for their third meeting this season Saturday in the 2025 NFL Wild Card round.
The Ravens beat the Steelers 34-17 as -7 favorites at home just three weeks ago. But, because of that win plus Pittsburgh's active losing streak, Baltimore is -9.5 favorites, which is an overreaction by the market. First of all, the Steelers beat the Ravens 18-16 when both teams were at full strength.
In Week 16, Pittsburgh was missing No. 1 WR George Pickens and Baltimore had No. 1 WR Zay Flowers, who won't be playing this Saturday. Also, that game flipped when Steelers QB Russell Wilson fumbled on Baltimore's four-yard line while scrambling toward the goal line. The Ravens scored after that turnover, resulting in a 14-point swing.
Wilson threw a god-awful pick-six to make the final score look worse and there was "reverse Tomlin voodoo" in Baltimore's favor. The Ravens recovered four of five fumbles, including a would-be game-changing strip-sack fumble by All-Pro pass rusher T.J. Watt. One of Pittsburgh's trademarks is good turnover luck, as random as that sounds.
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Plus, Pittsburgh's past four losses aren't "that bad." The Steelers lost to the Philadelphia Eagles on the road. Then in Baltimore for a short week. At the Kansas City Chiefs on a shorter week Christmas. And at the Cincinnati Bengals, who were playing in a "must-win" last week, and Pittsburgh still covered as +2.5 road underdogs in a 19-17 loss.
The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium Saturday in the 2025 NFL Wild Card Round. (Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images)
To further prove the market is overreacting to recent results, look at the betting splits. Nearly 60% of the bets were on the Steelers for their last meeting with the Ravens, per Pregame.com. For the wild-card round, Pregame.com says more than 80% of the money is on Baltimore as of Saturday morning. You don't need me to tell you that 85% of sports bettors don't win.
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More importantly, it's profitable to back Tomlin and Pittsburgh in these spots historically. The Steelers are 6-3 straight up and 7-2 against the spread as underdogs vs. the Ravens since 2019 (Lamar Jackson's first year as Balitmore's starter). Pittsburgh has covered seven straight primetime games as underdogs with five outright wins.
Again, the Steelers could be cooked. However, between Tomlin's warlock status and the pro-Pittsburgh trends, I'm betting the Steelers will keep this game within one score.
Prediction: Baltimore 24, Pittsburgh 20
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