Mike Tomlin's Voodoo Ends In 2024: Pittsburgh Steelers Will Have A Losing Year

NFL 2024 is around the corner. Last year, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. I'll preview every team to prepare for the upcoming year, give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. These are mostly ‘picks’ but I'll tell you which bets are ‘in pocket’. Somehow, Mike Tomlin did it again in 2023: Got the talent-deficient Pittsburgh Steelers to the playoffs despite being in the grueling AFC North.

Of course, the Steelers overachieved in 2023. That’s what they do. Football Gambling Twitter calls this, "Mike Tomlin Voodoo." Tomlin pulls wins out of his a**. Pittsburgh had 7.9 expected wins (per Pro Football Reference) but went Over its 8.5-game win total by finishing 10-7 last season. The Steelers haven’t had a losing season in Tomlin’s 17 seasons as head coach. 

They made the playoffs in 2023 with three different starting quarterbacks — Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph — none of whom are still on the team. And, of course, the Steelers were stomped in the 2024 AFC Wild Card game by the Buffalo Bills 31-17. That’s also what they do. Pittsburgh has lost four straight playoff games since 2016. 

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin on the sidelines against the Tennessee Titans at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. (Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

That aforementioned "Tomlin Voodoo" was manifested last season by the Steelers going 9-2 in one-score games and having a +11 turnover differential. Pittsburgh was out-gained in total yards in six of those nine one-score wins. 

READ: Justin Fields Fumbles Chance To Take Lead Of Steelers QB Competition

Per Spotrac, the Steelers were 31st in spending this offseason. Their big-ticket item was poaching LB Patrick Queen from the Baltimore Ravens for a three-year, $41 million deal. Pittsburgh traded for QB Justin Fields and took a flyer on QB Russell Wilson, signing him to a one-year, $1.2 million contract. Neither has secured the starting job as of mid-August. 

Also, the Steelers have two new starters on their offensive line and traded WR Diontae Johnson (51-717-5) to the Carolina Panthers. The Yinzers got their way when Tomlin fired former offensive coordinator (OC) Matt Canada after Week 11 last year. Former Atlanta Falcons head coach and Tennessee Titans OC Arthur Smith replaces Canada. 

Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 Odds

Courtesy of FanDuel at 1:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, August 14. 

• Super Bowl: +5000
• Conference: +2500
• Division: +750
• Playoffs: Yes (+154) | No (-192)
• 8.5 Wins: Over (+116) | Under (-144)

This is the year Tomlin's winning-season streak comes to an end. Pittsburgh goes from the second-toughest schedule in 2023 to the toughest this season, per Warren Sharp. Yet, last year's tough schedule is misleading. The Steelers didn't have to face Joe Burrow last year, and they beat the Ravens in Week 18 because Baltimore rested their starters. 

Furthermore, Pittsburgh's 2024 schedule down the stretch is insane. From Week 11, the Steelers play their AFC North foes, the Philadelphia Eagles, and Kansas City Chiefs. A few of their "easy games" are the Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, and New York Giants, who all should be better this year. Pittsburgh is only a favorite in six games next season based on the look-ahead lines at DraftKings. 

Pittsburgh Steelers QBs Russell Wilson and Justin Fields take the field for a preseason game vs. the Houston Texans at Acrisure Stadium. (Barry Reeger-USA TODAY Sports)

Even though their quarterback situation is better, the Steelers won't be much better offensively. Wilson is washed and Fields is a backup. They are playing behind a mediocre offensive line and throwing to a bad WR corp. Pittsburgh cannot count on its offense to win games. The Steelers need their opponents to shoot themselves in the foot, which is a sustainable way to win games. 

Between their tough schedule, minimal upgrades to the roster this offseason, and a below-average starting quarterback (whomever that may be), there's a world where the Steelers bottom out next season. 

Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 Projection: 5-12 for last in the AFC North

_____________________________ 

‘Best Bet’ For the 2024 Steelers: Worst Regular Season Record (+3100) at FanDuel

Firstly, I love Tomlin. When they missed two straight playoffs in 2018-19, imbeciles in the NFL media said the Steelers should move on from Tomlin. I aggressively defended Tomlin while reminding people about the locker room cancers he kept in check: Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le'Veon Bell. 

However, coaching can only overcome so much and Pittsburgh is overdue for a down year. Granted, the Steelers aren't the least talented team in the NFL. But, given their +3100 odds and the daunting schedule, Pittsburgh having the worst record in the NFL is a "plus-EV" bet that should have good "closing line value". 

Actual NFL 2024 Futures in the account 

• Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns (+2700)
• Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South (+1100)
• Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence to throw for 4,000+ yards (+165)
• Houston Texans WR Nico Collins to lead the NFL in receiving yards (+2900)
• 3-team division-winning parlay: Panthers, Jaguars, and Cleveland Browns (+31400)
• Cleveland Browns ‘Ladder’ Futures: Super Bowl (+3500), AFC (+2200), and AFC North (+600)
• Pittsburgh Steelers to have the worst regular-season record in 2024 (+3100)

_____________________________ 

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.