Pitt Can Steal Road Victory Over Ranked Opponent

Pitt vs. SMU, 8:00 PM ET

We don't have a ton of games today that are between ranked teams, but we get to start the day with one and end the day with another. There are a ton of games, as always on Saturday, but I tend to gravitate to the teams that are both ranked as most of them have extra incentive to win, specifically now that we have 12 teams making the playoffs. In this one, both teams would need some help over the next few weeks as the Panthers take on the Mustangs on Saturday night.

Pitt comes into this game with a perfect record and are looking to run that up against a talented SMU squad. This is the first time this season that they have faced a ranked opponent, and they really haven't been tested to this point in the season. Sure, early in the year, they beat Cincinnati in a close game 28-27. They have had two other one-score games, one against West Virginia and one against Cal. What do you expect the team to do offensively? Well, they can beat you in a variety of ways, but the team mainly relies on quarterback Eli Holstein. Holstein has thrown for 1,805 yards, 17 touchdowns, and five interceptions for the season. There has only been two games this year where he hasn't thrown three touchdowns this season. The biggest concern I have is that he is coming off of his worst two games of the season. In his last game, he only threw the ball 15 times but two of them went for touchdowns. Two games ago he didn't throw a touchdown but did throw two interceptions. In back-to-back games he has thrown for fewer than 150 yards. I suppose I can give him a bit of a pass for the more recent game against Syracuse as the team still won by 28 points, getting five interceptions off of Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord. The team took three of those back for touchdowns. 

SMU’s Roderick Daniels Jr. scores a touchdown against Louisville this Saturday.Oct. 5, 2024

SMU has also put together a nice campaign this season, sitting at 7-1 for the year and 4-0 in conference play. Their lone loss this season came back in their third game, a lost at home to BYU. In that contest, the offense really couldn't get much going, losing the game 18-15. It really wasn't on the defense as they did as much as they could for the team. They allowed an early touchdown, but three field goals gave SMU the lead going into halftime. The team allowed another touchdown late in the third, and a field goal to end the game. Ultimately, it is up to the offense to do more than kick five field goals in a game if they expect to win. Kevin Jennings, their quarterback, is a dual threat type guy. He can run, although it is with mixed levels of success, and is a decent enough passer. For the season, he has 1,594 yards through the air with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. He has been rather careless lately, giving up four touchdowns in his past two games. It hasn't fully mattered as SMU has won both of the games. They have had one game this season that was against a ranked opponent as they beat Louisville in Louisville to take a 34-27 win. 

If I look at the two offenses, I think that Pitt is better in that category. If I look at the defenses, then you probably give the edge to SMU, although, I'm not quite sure the gap between their defenses is quite as large as the gap between the offenses. The other factors, like home-field advantage, and coaching seem to be in favor of SMU. I think this game is likely to be a little bit closer than an SMU 7-pt win. I'm taking the points with Pitt and wouldn't be shocked to see an upset here. 

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