Pitching Splits Show Signs For Offensive Production

Diamondbacks vs. Guardians, 6:40 ET

Turned out to be a fairly decent Sunday as the Cubs were able to get us a nice plus money victory over the Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball. Taking three of four games from your division rival who has a shot at the playoffs is always a good feeling, and us cashing in on it is even better. Now we have new series to lock in on during a shorter, but still pretty full, slate of baseball is upon us. Tonight we have the Diamondbacks taking on the Guardians - two teams looking for the playoffs.

The Diamondbacks are in the playoffs as of today, but it hasn't been all rainbows and sunshine for the desert squad. This team, coming off of their World Series appearance, had every look of a World Series hangover. While they were hitting the ball well (and still are) the pitching looked worn down and tired from the deep playoff run. To a certain extent that isn't overly surprising as it was a lot of the players first times getting that far, and potentially even the first playoff experience. This season they came in with a bit of a target on their back, though I assume most thought it was more of a fluke or luck that the Diamondbacks made it in the first place. Tonight, they get their ace to take the mound with Zac Gallen giving it a go. Gallen has been solid this year, but not quite as dominant as he was last season. He is 9-5 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Strong numbers, certainly, but last season (and even the year before) he would go on stretches of scoreless innings where he was virtually untouchable. He hasn't been that way this season, and time is running out. He has posted back-to-back quality starts though, which is encouraging. Gallen has been worse on the road, allowing 16 earned runs in just 36 road innings over eight starts. That means he isn't even averaging five innings in his road outings. In fairness to him, he did have a start where he didn't record an out against the Mets and was pulled due to injury. There isn't much experience against Gallen from the Guardians, they are just 8-for-35 against him. 

Arizona Diamondbacks OF Corbin Carroll hits an RBI sacrifice fly vs. the Phillies in Game 7 of the 2023 NLCS at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

The Guardians control their own destiny and can continue to make progress toward that fate with a win tonight. They've been amazing at home this season, owning a 35-17 record, which is almost all of their 23 games over .500 mark. At the deadline, the Guardians added a bit of power which should help a lineup that was a bit too reliant on Jose Ramirez to get its offense. That isn't to imply the only way the Guardians score is via the longball. The team is hitting .242 which is a strong average and alludes to their small-ball approach. If their pitching can hold up, I don't think anyone will be excited about playing this hard-nosed team. Logan Allen takes the ball for the Guardians today. He has been rather frustrating this season for the Guardians. In every month, his ERA has been over five earned runs. His stuff is better than this, but he doesn't seem to be avoiding a lot of contact, and is walking far too many hitters. He's been worse at home and in night games as well - at home a 6.42 ERA, and 7.12 in night contests. 

I don't really enjoy betting on opposing teams in Cleveland. This season, the Guardians have just been too good to fade at home. This is likely a spot that the Guardians lose the game, but I think it is probably safer to assume two things - the pitchers are not in their ideal spots, so offenses should have the edge. The other assumption is that Gallen is significantly better than Allen and should control the game at least through five innings. The books seem to think so as well and I don't like the prices I am seeing on the first five innings. I'll back the over 8.5 for the full game. 

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